Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100: Trading Levels for Short-term Operators

Published

9 år ago

1 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Short-term trading levels and lines
The SP 500 having a lot of difficulty overcoming resistance in the 2130s
The Nasdaq 100 remains postured poorly, with its own levels to overcome to turn it around

The market is still in ‘chop’ mode, so we will continue to look to short-term levels and be quick to peel off trades at the first sign of opposition. The following are based on cash session levels, operating between the hours of 13:30 to 20:00 GMT time.

SP 500

The area surrounding 2130 is proving to be increasingly formidable with the SP 500 failing to trade above on back-to-back days. If the SP can move above 2130, we will look to the upper parallel of the 10/24 channel as the next level of resistance (~2134). A couple of handles beyond there lies the 10/17 lower parallel (~2136) and then the backside of the 10/13 trend-line (~2139). Should the market get some pep in its step, the 10/10 trend-line (~2144) comes into play followed by the key 2146/48 area.

Looking to the downside on a hold below the 2130s, we have minor support right around where we closed yesterday at 2124/25, but not looking to it as very meaningful. The next likely support comes in at Friday’s low of 2119 and the lower parallel belonging to the 10/24 channel, then the important daily low at 2115 comes into play. Below 2115 things could get interesting as there is nothing highly visible on the daily chart until perhaps the psych-level at 2100 and lower parallel at around 2093.

SP 500: 60-min

Created with Tradingview

Nasdaq 100

The Naz is sitting below key trend-line resistance running up from the 9/12 swing low, still in a solid downtrend from the 10/25 high. This continues to keep the index pointed lower until it can turn momentum upward and begin arching over key resistance levels. The first level of resistance to maintain is the 10/20, 10/28 lows (4806) and steeply-angled trend-line off the 10/27 gap open high, where the market is treading around now. The first truly meaningful form of resistance comes in at the bottom-side of the 9/12 trend-line (~4820), beyond there the 10/25 trend-line and horizontal resistance running back to 10/3 (both in the ~4040/48 vicinity).

Looking lower, support comes in at the 10/28 low and pivots running back to 9/8 (~4794/87). Below there lies an air pocket down to the 10/13 low at 4760.

Nasdaq 100: 60-min

Created with Tradingview

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form