Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500 – Replay of Period During Spring May Be in Progress, Watch These Signposts

Published

7 år ago

17 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

SP 500 regains key broken technicals, but…
It doesn’t mean it’s in the all clear just yet for higher prices (current period looks familiar, though)
Looking to support by way of May parallel and June high as a guide

Find out in our Q3 Forecast what’s driving the SP 500 this quarter.

In the forecast coming into this week, this is what we had to say: “That reversal [referring to 8/8] turned into a mini-rout on Thursday. The damage done was a break below the June high and lower parallel rising up from May. This keeps pressure on the market to try and regain a bullish posturing. It’s done so before (over and over in this ‘buy the dip’ market), but can it do it again – right now?” In a way, so far, we got our answer – yes. Dip-buyers showed up again and while victory for longs can’t be celebrated yet, the market did manage to regain the previously mentioned broken technicals.

We’re at a bit of a cross-road with the spike lower and rebound. The market could be resuming the uptrend after a quick sell-off as it has done so many times before, or in the process of putting in a lower high and roll over again.

With those two scenarios in mind, here is what to watch for. First-off, look to the recaptured May parallel and old June high as support should the market dip from here. If we see a break back below 2350 then odds increase significantly that a lower high is being put in and the market wants to break lower. But should the SP maintain above support then we’ll run with the notion the market wants to maintain a bid at the least, if not make a run on the 8/8 reversal-day intra-day record high. The period from early July to now looks very much like the period during April and May. Could we see a similar path once again? We’ll use the beforementioned support levels as our guide.

Yesterday, we saw some intra-day whipsaws following the release of the minutes from the July FOMC minutes, but net-net the market ended the day right where it was two hours earlier. Looking ahead, tomorrow brings U. of Michigan Confidence for August, potentially a market-mover, but look for it to have more of an impact on FX/rates than equities.

SP 500: Daily

See the Webinar Calendar for a full line-up of upcoming live events with DailyFX analysts.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form