Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500: Short-term Trading Levels in Play

Published

9 år ago

27 oktober, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The SP 500 continues to provide no good swing-trade opportunities, but…
Very short-term fluctuations still offer opportunity
Key support and resistance levels/lines highlighted

Trading has been choppy in the indices for a while now, with the SP 500 epitomizing the lackluster environment. Swing-trades are pretty much nonexistent as the market searches for direction. But this doesn’t mean there isn’t room to trade from day-to-day, it’s just that we must take trades off levels and lines of influence and be nimble and ready to peel off positions at the first sign of opposition to our trades.

Most day-trades on this end are done during the cash session from 13:30 to 20:00 GMT. Below are the chart markings for the SP as we head towards today’s open.

The most critical level to watch as resistance comes in at the 2146/50 area, where several inflection points of support and resistance can be found. To a less degree in this vicinity we have a trend-line running down off the 10/10 swing high. A break above brings the 10/24 swing high at 2155 into play, and on aggressive trade higher the trend-line extending lower off the 9/7 swing high. Several inflection points spanning over a fairly lengthy period make this an important trend-line to watch. To a lesser degree of importance, running near this t-line is the upper parallel off the 10/14 swing high. In the unlikely event we trade above the before mentioned resistance levels in the very near-term we will look to 2070 as the next stopping point.

On the downside, we first have support by way of a trend-line running higher off the 10/13 important daily low, then the lower parallel extending back to the 10/17 pivot. Horizontal support quickly comes into play around 2130, then 2124, and finally the important 2115 level.

SP 500: 1-Hour

Created with Tradingview

As with any zone of support or resistance, we view it loosely and watch price action surrounding these areas for indications as to whether the market wants to reverse or continue through. Levels need to be adjusted to the instrument being traded (ie. CFD, futures, ETF, etc). Risk/reward ratios should be skewed favorably (~1/2+) at all times, keeping in mind the distance between entry, stop, and their proximity to your target. Always.

Pre-market futures at this time are indicating a slightly stronger open (+4.5) at this time, nothing outside our lines. This could of course change by the time the opening bell rings.

Start improving your trading with the help of our free trading guides designed for traders of all experience levels.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form