Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: ’Blow-off’ Rally Continues

Published

9 år ago

2 mars, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

SP 500 rips to new heights post-Trump address
There is minor resistance in the vicinity, but momentum is strong; ‘blow-off’ may have more to go
Risk/reward unfavorable for both sides of the tape at the moment

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The other day we looked at a short-term price sequence which suggested if it gained momentum we could be in for a short-term top. Not so fast. Later, on Tuesday evening (EST time) in the U.S., President Trump addressed Congress and it won over the market; resulting in the SP futures gapping higher on Wednesday morning and then rallying sharply for all but the last five minutes of the day.

The SPX closed the session at the bottom-side of a trend-line extending higher off the November low and back below the psychological 2400 level. Given the momentum of the market these are only considered minor points of resistance.

From a big picture standpoint, chasing the market higher here doesn’t present the best risk/reward. But as we’ve been saying during this ‘blow-off’ rally, outside of very short-term maneuvers (day-trades), shorting has no appeal. No change on this stance.

Where is the market headed? The expectation on this end is that in the not-too-distant future we will see a meaningful top and a resulting period of sideways price action at the least, and likely a material retracement given the extreme nature of the rip. But these ‘blow-off’ top type moves can go much further than we think, and until we see price action suggesting the broader move higher is finished or consolidating we will stand aside and wait for better signaling from the market.

SP 500: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

9 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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