Analys från DailyFX

S&P 500 Technical Outlook Murky, Yellen Speaks in Jackson Hole

Published

7 år ago

25 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

SP 500 hanging on after looking like carnage could set-in
Is the recent price action taking shape as a steep bull-flag or developing bearish sequence?
Yellen set to speak at Jackson Hole starting at 14:00 GMT time

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Heading into the new week this is what we had to say about the decline in the SP 500 to end last week, “The drop left the market closing the week just a shade under the trend-line running higher since December. How the market responds early in the week could be important for how events unfold for the remainder of the week. “

On Monday morning we saw more weakness just below the December trend-line into the lower parallel tied to the top-side trend-line off the 8/8 reversal-day high, but it was short-lived and the market responded from there through Tuesday with a strong rebound. While the bullish response may have not set the tone for the week, necessarily, it did keep the market from taking a dive lower when the technicals suggested it was certainly a possibility.

The market is caught in a sort of ‘limbo’ – it’s neither truly bear nor bull at this juncture. Is the move off the monthly (record) high a correction resembling a steep bull-flag formation, or the beginning of a trend lower marked by lower lows and lower highs which will eventually lead to an outright decline?

The December trend-line could be breached again, leading to a move towards 2405 (a pretty big spot also near the Feb ’16 trend-line), but won’t necessarily be an outright bearish occurrence – especially if it does so in the same 3 steps down, 2 up sequence as we’ve been seeing. That type of price action shows buying interest by market participants is still present. A recapture of the ~2454 resistance area and the top-side trend-line of the developing downward channel would be a mild positive, but not necessarily providing a strong bullish signal.

Find out what’s driving stocks this quarter in our Q3 Report.

SP 500: Daily

Samp;P 500 Technical Outlook Murky, Yellen Speaks in Jackson Hole

So, what’s the bottom line? We’re at somewhat of a technical impasse here. Neither side of the market is garnering much excitement at the moment, and on that we’ll wait until further clarity.

Heads up: The ECB’s Draghi, and more importantly the Fed’s Yellen are set to give speeches today at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. It’s unclear how much volatility their words will bring, but short-term traders need to be on their toes as risk of price-swings will be heightened. Yellen kicks off at 14:00 GMT time, Draghi later in the day at 19:00.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form