Analys från DailyFX
S&P 500 Trading Outlook – Is the Decline Over?
What’s inside:
- SP 500 rallies sharply after big Monday gap-down
- Trading up against resistance zone
- Hourly chart in focus
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In Monday’s piece, we had this to say about the gap-down open: “As long as we don’t see a ‘gap-n-trap’ buy situation which erases a significant portion of today’s losses and then some, we are looking to the area around 2300 as the near-term target.” The gap-down buy was exactly what we saw, especially in the Nasdaq 100, which now sits in close proximity to a new record closing print.
The first two days of the week have brought a nice rebound, but was Monday the low, ending a correction? The overall trend is pointing upward, and dips, or corrections, should be relatively short-lived – at least in terms of price (time corrections can take a while). But it seems a bit premature to say the market is in the all-clear just yet.
Looking at the short-term, the SP is squared up against a trough created earlier in the month, and needs to clear above if it is to touch off the trend-line running down from the record high created on 3/1.
SP 500: Daily
Created with TradingView
Pulling in closer to the hourly chart, a pullback from current levels and higher low could create a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders set-up. But this is only a scenario, however; given this week’s gap-down and surge higher it would be reasonable to conclude that a higher low could develop and another thrust higher unfold thereafter. In this scenario, we would look for the top-side trend-line over 2370 as the next line of contention.
A drop below 2336 and it would become likely the Monday low will come under fire, and possibly worse. In summary, a pullback is the first expected move – how the market reacts on any decline which may unfold very soon will be the tell moving forward. As they say – ‘much can be learned in the retracement.’
SP 500: Hourly
Created with TradingView
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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