Analys från DailyFX
SSI: Retail Positioning Dictates Potential for British Pound Breakout
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Currency Spotlight:
EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.99 as 25% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.85; 26% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 14.3% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 3.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
GBPUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -3.93 as 20% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -3.41; 23% of open positions were long. Long positions are 9.4% lower than yesterday and 2.1% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 1.9% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 10.6% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.
GBPJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.35 as 43% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.25; 44% of open positions were long. Long positions are 8.4% lower than yesterday and 17.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 1.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.4% lower than yesterday and 3.2% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the GBPJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.
USDJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.51 as 60% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.66; 62% of open positions were long. Long positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 17.4% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 24.2% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.3% lower than yesterday and 0.5% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
USDCHF – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.64 as 78% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 3.50; 78% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 10.4% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 3.6% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 0.8% lower than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.11 as 53% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.03; 51% of open positions were long. Long positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 3.7% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 4.9% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 3.7% lower than yesterday and 6.8% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDCAD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
AUDUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.46 as 59% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.47; 60% of open positions were long. Long positions are 1.5% lower than yesterday and 17.2% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 25.0% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.1% lower than yesterday and 7.9% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown less net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
NZDUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.10 as 48% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.20; 45% of open positions were long. Long positions are 11.2% higher than yesterday and 31.5% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 2.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 5.9% higher than yesterday and 5.5% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the NZDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
EURCHF – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURCHF stands at 12.96 as 93% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 12.23; 92% of open positions were long. Long positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 11.3% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 27.7% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the EURCHF may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday but moderated since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
XAUUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the XAUUSD stands at 1.52 as 60% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was 1.43; 59% of open positions were long. Long positions are 6.3% lower than yesterday and 6.0% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 11.9% lower than yesterday and 14.2% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 8.6% lower than yesterday and 3.7% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the XAUUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has grown further net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.
SPX500 – The ratio of long to short positions in the SPX500 stands at -4.48 as 18% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -4.81; 17% of open positions were long. Long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 13.4% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 25.8% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.1% lower than yesterday and 25.0% above its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the SPX500 may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday but further short since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
EURJPY – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURJPY stands at -1.00 as 50% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.09; 48% of open positions were long. Long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 0.7% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 5.4% lower than yesterday and 6.9% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.5% lower than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURJPY may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown less net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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