Analys från DailyFX

Technical Analysis: ASX 200 Must Consolidate to Convince

Published

8 år ago

6 april, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points

Australia’s equity benchmark has managed new 2-year highs
But it doesn’t look particularly comfortable
If it can’t hang on thena return to a more familiar range looks likely

Australia’s ASX 200 equity index has risen to new two-year highs in the past week or so, raising the obvious question: can it stay up here?

The index has certainly held its ground since peaking at 5900 on March 31. But the range traded since has been a wafer-thin 68 points or so, which doesn’t suggest huge conviction. At its current 5840 the ASX is also way above both its 50- and 100-day moving averages, as can be clearly seen in the chart below. This might also be a worry for those who hope it can survive and even thrive up here.

Dizzy Heights? ASX 200

Still, it’s equally clearly been this far above those averages before in its climb up from the lows of late 2016, and that fact has been no barrier to further progress. Moreover, the bullish crossover which took place in May 2016, when the 50-day topped the 200-day, has not yet been reversed. Even though we came quite close in mid-November, the 50-day remains on top, as bulls would want.

Both averages remain in obvious uptrend, too. In short there would seem scope for cautious bullish optimism here, even at what for 2017 are elevated levels.

However, to really convince the index will have to consolidate more clearly. And it’s not doing so. Currently below the closing level of the past five trading sessions, the index is looking at the short-term supports of 5820.3 and 5745.6, the March 28 and 27 closing levels, respectively.

And if we return to those levels then the most recent rise will start to look spurious and a return to the year’s broad trading range will be the most likely outcome, only with yet another rejected push higher in the record.

Would you like to know more about trading the financial markets? DailyFX’s trading guide should be your first stop.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form