Analys från DailyFX

Technical Analysis: Impressive USD/JPY Rise Hits The Buffers

Published

8 år ago

12 maj, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY’s climb has been impressive these past three weeks
However, it seems to be running out of steam
Similar exhaustion is evident in other Yen crosses

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The US Dollar has put in an impressive run of gains against the Japanese Yen since the current rush higher started on April 18.

Of the 21 trading days since, fully 15 have seen USD/JPY rise. However, all rallies end be they never so strong and the current one looks to be petering out before it has topped some important milestones.

The recent peak is the March 10 intraday top of 115.51. That would need to be conquered before USD/JPY bulls could consider a run at a much more significant level – the 2017 peak of 118.61 hit on January 3.

However, for the moment bulls seem to have run out of puff some way below both, at about the 114.40 level which has contained USD/JPY’s rise on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Worryingly this level also put them off on February 14 and March 2. The pair made a minor top here and retreated on both days.

USD/JPY needs to push on at least as far as that March 10 peak of 115.51 to keep this rally humming. If it can’t, look out below as the 108 lows of mid-April could be back in play.

The picture looks similarly ominous if we take a look at GBP/JPY.

Here it looks as though the index is preparing to make a double top in the 147.68 region. Admittedly the failure of this cross’s climb up from 136.84 on April 17 is not yet confirmed. However, it does seem to have faltered at the highs in the last couple of days.

Its RSI readings might also suggest a degree of overbuying here, even if at levels around 70 they are not yet conclusively extreme.

You can more or less take your pick with Yen crosses and this faltering rally/double top picture emerges, backed up by rising RSI. It’s clear that Yen bears have a little work to do at the moment.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form