Analys från DailyFX

Technical Analysis: Nikkei 225 Looks Comfortable at the Top

Published

7 år ago

20 juni, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Can the Nikkei 225 hold on up here, and maybe even push higher?
Well, some of the signs are quite encouraging
But watch that possible double top

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The Nikkei 225 is around its highs for 2017, indeed it’s higher than it’s been since August 2015.

When an index is doing that, there are only two essential questions ever asked of technical analysis:

Can it stay up here, and if it can’t how bad could the damage be?

Well, to take those questions as they came, the near-term signs are quite encouraging. The Nikkei may be at a rarefied altitude but its moving averages are in the order which often suggests a degree of confidence. The shorter, 20-day remains well above the 100-day and the 50-day crossed back above the 100-day on June 2. That’s usually seen as quite a bullish sign.

Moreover, the index has been happy enough around current levels since about May 1. If there are those who are terrified of these heights, they’re keeping their fears in check quite well. The index looks comfortable in its new, higher range. And, while the Relative Strength Index is unarguably creeping toward territory which might suggest a degree of overbuying, we’re not there quite yet.

That’s the good news. The slightly worse news is that the index hasn’t quite yet exorcised the spectre of a double top, which I worried about in my last technical look. Admittedly it has managed to get past the previous peak, June 5’s 20,125. But it has only closed above there once so far on a daily basis. It will need to do more than that to convince investors that a bullish breakout from that possibility is really in play.

As for the second question – how bad would the damage be from any reverse – well, that depends on the nature of that reversal. A classic double top might put all gains made since April on the table. However, a less-dramatic failure of nerve could simply see the index back in the narrow range which has endured since May.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form