Analys från DailyFX
Technical Weekly: USD/JPY
- GBP/USD still pressured
- AUD/USD 3rd consecutive week with an ‘indecision’ candle at resistance
- USD/JPY back for more at well-defined 111.00/90 zone
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EUR/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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1.0530 and 1.0460s. Those are the 2 levels that I’m paying attention to. 1.0530 is the December 2015 low and 61.8% of the rally from the January low. 1.0460s is the March 2015 low and year open price. If the rate trades out of the channel that defines weakness from the 2016 high then the summer lows at 1.0910/50 represent the next test. If fresh lows are registered (not my base case given the first day of the year reversal), then there is a long term parallel to be aware of just above 1.0100.
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GBP/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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The last update noted that “the high is at the November high and a long term parallel so it could take some time to work out the kinks before an extension higher.” Cable continues to trade under the mentioned parallel and as such remains pressured. A move through the parallel (higher) would indicate an important behavior change and trigger a double bottom with the October and January lows (target 1.3400-1.3500).
AUD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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The view that an important bullish base has formed remains but the action of the last 3 (was 1, then 2, and now 3) weeks at resistance (.7700-.7835) warns of a pause in what has been the trend of 2017. Keep the RSI comments in mind. “Weekly RSI has peaked at/near 60 on every bounce since after the 2011 peak. RSI at the 2 most recent lows (January 2016 and January 2017) are near 40, which is a positive. In other words, the momentum profile has improved which increases risk of an upside break.” ALSO, the current 52 week range (weekly closes) is 7.1%. This is the smallest 52 week range since October 2005 and at the lower end of its historical range. The implication is that AUD/USD is on the verge of transitioning from range contraction conditions to range expansion conditions (trend).
NZD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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Since reversing sharply (outside week reversal) 2 weeks ago, Kiwi has quietly consolidated. Bigger picture, Kiwi remains capped by the upper end of its 2016 range and a channel line. As noted last week, “peaks in NZD/USD since the summer have been anything but clean but that may be changing as Friday’s high was right at the December high. Clean reactions at clean levels is a plus. I lean towards the downside with focus on the 55 week average (maybe a bit below).”
USD/JPY
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
The USD/JPY close is the lowest since the first week of December. Possible channel support resides just below the market along with the February 2016 low at 110.99 and April 2016 high at 111.90. A reversal from this zone would be viewed as evidence that a broader range remains in play. Failure to hold would shift focus to the 200 week and 55 week averages near 109.80 and 108.50. I’d pay more attention to the 55 week near 108.50 because the 50% retracement of the rally from the 2016 low is 108.83.
USD/CAD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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USD/CAD has spent almost all of 2017 testing support from a long term parallel. From a momentum perspective, RSI failed at 60 on the latest rally. This characteristic is associated with either a downtrend or sideways trend. Also, the rally from May 2016 is corrective so the bias is for impulsive weakness but I don’t like being bearish into support (parallels). Weakness below 1.2835 would warrant a bearish bias towards the 5 year trendline in the low 1.2000s.
USD/CHF
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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USD/CHF remains supported above the 55 week average but the rate has tended to top in early-mid March the last few years. Generally, Swissie is trading in no-man’s land at the current level. The levels to know are the nearly 6 year trendline (.9850 on log scale and just above .9700 on arithmetic) and topside of the wedge near 1.0450 (line off of 2012 and 2015 highs). A break of one of these technical barriers ideally leads to one of the largest moves in many years.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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