Analys från DailyFX

The S&P 500 Looking to Join the Dow, Russell 2k to New Highs

Published

9 år ago

18 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The SP 500 is making up ground on the Dow and Russell 2k
Rotation into the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is helping keep the train moving forward
The path of least resistance is higher, would require a strong bearish signal to flip the script

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In Tuesday’s post, we discussed the glaring divergence between the major US indices. The Dow and the Russell 2000 (small-caps) have been strong like bull, trading to new record highs. Yesterday, the Russell made it 10 successive days up. Impressive. The SP 500 is slowly slogging through resistance levels and in the process it’s playing catch-up to the Dow and Russell, with new highs just on the horizon.

The Nasdaq 100, the index we said to keep an eye on, is thus far looking to invalidate the ‘head-and-shoulders’ top we had drawn in as a possible scenario should it break support. It’s not out of the woods yet, but with a little more push it will make that scenario null and void. We made note on Tuesday that the Nasdaq would be a key determining factor in shaping our broader bias. So far, rotation into NDX bellwether stocks is helping push the broader market higher.

The 2170/82 resistance zone in the SP was cleared, with 2188 up to the record highs at 2194 now standing in the way (yesterday’s high is 2188). We will look to 2170/82 as support on a dip, with expectations of seeing more upside. It’s a tough spot to be a buyer when the market has already surged and strong resistance stands in the way, but the path of least resistance is up, and until we see a thorough push to the 2194 highs or better the market likely won’t back off much. So, while buying at this stage is tough, shorting is likely to be more difficult. For this view to change, it would require a strong rejection at resistance or just above before we would consider trading a decline with any aggression.

Short-term traders (day-traders) can look to ride the waves both ways, but the winds are at the bulls’ back until the market provides further notice.

SP 500: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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