Analys från DailyFX
Traders Wait For Gold Prices Next Breakout
Talking Points:
- Traders Wait for Gold Prices Next Breakout
- Daily Resistance is Found at $1,292.50; Support $1,279.03
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After trading to new 2017 highs at $1,295.62 earlier in the week, gold prices are now consolidating. This sideways price action, allows traders time to plan for the markets next breakout. Technically traders should note that gold prices are forming an inside bar, as seen below on the daily chart.With prices failing to breakout to a new high or low in early trading, traders may elect to use Wednesday’s daily bar as a reference for values of support and resistance.
Wednesday’s high is found at $1,292.50, and currently acting as a point of resistance. Traders may look for bullish daily breakouts above this value. Alternatively Wednesday’s low is found at $1,279.03, which is currently acting as a value of support. A bearish breakout below this value would suggest a continuation in downward momentum, opening up gold prices to test other values of technical support.
Gold Price, Daily Chart Inside Bar
Intraday, gold prices continue to range after testing support at today’s S1 pivot at a price of $1,281.22. If prices continue to rebound here, gold traders should look for the commodity to next pass through today’s central pivot found at 1,286.86. A move to today’s central pivot would suggest a change in momentum for gold in the short term. This would open gold prices to rally towards points of resistance including today’s R1 and R2 pivots found at $1,294.69 and $1,300.33. It should be noted that a move to either of these values would place gold back above yesterday’s daily high, suggesting a broader breakout may be occurring.
In the event that gold prices fall further intraday, traders may find the next values of support at today’s S2 and S3 pivots. These pivots are located at $1,273.39 and $1,267.75 respectively. A move to either of these points would also place the price of gold outside of yesterday’s daily range. In this bearish scenario, traders may look for the commodity to test longer term values of price support. This includes the April 11th swing low, which is found at $1,253.17.
Gold Price, Daily Chart Inside Bar
— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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