Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar and Japanese Yen on Target to Hit these Price Levels
– US Dollar and Japanese Yen have broken sharply above key price resistance
– We highlight further targets for USD and JPY pairs in the charts below
– See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators
Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.
The US Dollar and Japanese Yen have broken sharply higher versus the Euro and British Pound. Here are the levels we’re watching next.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro has broken major levels of volume-based support and currently trades just above noteworthy congestion near $1.0900. A larger breakdown leaves little in the way of a test of $1.08, while former support is current resistance starting at $1.10 and extending through $1.12.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The British Pound has broken sharply below key support at the 1.5650 mark and now hovers just above notable congestion near $1.5400. A larger breakdown exposes a move towards June lows of $1.5200, while former support is now resistance starting at $1.5600.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has continued to fail at notable congestion in the ¥123.50-¥124.50 range, and a failure has likewise taken it below recent lows of ¥122.60. Further volume-based support at ¥121.50, but trading below leaves major congestion near ¥119 as the next level to watch.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar has broken sharply below all notable volume-based support levels, and our trading bias remains in favor of selling until we see a meaningful rebound. Former congestion highs from January, 2009 offer near-term price targets at $0.7250, but there remains little noteworthy support until the psychologically significant $0.7000 level. Resistance is former support in the $0.7600-0.7650 zone.
GBPJPY
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Sterling has traded below important congestion versus the Yen at the ¥190 level, and support is now seen at December, 2014 highs near ¥188—likewise an important volume-based congestion zone. Our focus remains to the downside, and former support turns to resistance starting near ¥190.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro has broken below key volume-based support versus the Yen near ¥135, and further support is now seen at May lows near ¥132. Former price floors now turn into a near-term ceiling at ¥135 as our focus remains to the downside.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar bounced off of important support versus the Swiss Franc near the SFr0.9300 mark, and focus now turns to significant volume and price-based resistance starting at 0.9500. Trading above said level would target a move towards April highs near SFr 0.9700, while support is seen at recent congestion lows starting at 0.9200.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has broken convincingly above major volume and price-based resistance near C$1.2450 versus the Canadian Dollar, and our next upside target becomes post-financial-crisis highs near 1.2800. Former resistance is now support at the 1.2450 level.
NZDUSD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The New Zealand Dollar has traded below all notable volume-based support levels has also broken July, 2010 lows near $0.6800. The next level of support is now seen at the May, 2010 trough of $0.6550, while trading below leaves few comparable price floors until the psychologically significant 0.6500 mark.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar has broken below all notable volume-based support versus the Japanese Yen, and further downside targets are now the psychologically significant ¥90 mark and January, 2014 lows of ¥88.40.
EURAUD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The EUR/AUD trades at significant spike-highs in the A$1.48-1.49 range, and a break higher would leave few comparable price ceilings until 1.5350. Support remains at important volume-based price congestion starting above 1.4500.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro/Sterling trades has held important psychological support at the £0.70, but it has thus far failed to trade to support-turned-resistance starting in the £0.7150-0.7200 range. Focus remains lower absent a break above the key price ceiling.
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.
Contact David via
Twitter at https://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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