Analys från DailyFX

US Dollar Continues Climb amid Emerging Markets Rebound; Yields Up

Published

12 år ago

29 augusti, 2013

DailyFX

INTRADAY PERFORMANCE UPDATE: 09:55 GMT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.32% (+0.39%prior 5-days)

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The US Dollar has emerged as the top performed for the second consecutive day (at the time this report was written) amid cooling fears over emerging markets and potential joint military action by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France against Syria.

Whereas stocks and FX had been largely following the performance of US Treasuries the past two weeks, already the past two days there are signs of this relationship slipping. Indeed, even as the US Dollar has rebounded alongside slightly higher US Treasury yields – the 10-year note yield has increased from a low of 2.720% on Tuesday to 2.780% today – investors aren’t treating the move as a sign the world is ending.

Instead, the rebound in US yields suggests that investors are calming down: nervous market participants scrambled back into US Treasuries to start this week. Today, the slight unwinding of US Treasuries is a function of investors being less worried about keeping their capital safe; not QE3 taper speculation.

It is worth noting that trading today could easily flip from ‘the world isn’t so bad’ to ‘the world is ending’ once more, but this time in a beneficial manner to the US Dollar. The second 2Q’13 US GDP report will be released today, and consensus forecasts see growth having improved to +2.2% annualized versus +1.7% prior.

A ‘meet’ or ‘beat’ of this figure (+2.2%) would put the US economy right on the Federal Reserve’s forecasted growth track, and could jumpstart ‘Septaper’ speculation. A miss here would likely provoke a retrenchment in US yields, and provoking the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index to shed its weekly gains.

USDJPY 5-minute Chart: August 29, 2013 Intraday

US_Dollar_Continues_Climb_amid_Emerging_Markets_Rebound_Yields_Up_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Continues Climb amid Emerging Markets Rebound; Yields Up

Taking a look at European credit, tensions easing in emerging markets have helped soothe investor confidence over peripheral debt (though the core remains well-bid). The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.940% (-3.0-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.787% (-0.8-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.351% (-5.3-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.490% (-2.4-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

US_Dollar_Continues_Climb_amid_Emerging_Markets_Rebound_Yields_Up_body_x0000_i1028.png, US Dollar Continues Climb amid Emerging Markets Rebound; Yields Up

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form