Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, SPX 500 in a Holding Pattern
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Falters at 7-Month High, Snaps Three-Day Win Streak
- SP 500 Locked in a Holding Pattern as Markets Await Catalyst
- Crude Oil Chart Setup Hints at Bounce From $100 Level Ahead
Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled downward after putting the benchmark currency at the highest level in seven months. A daily close below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 10657 exposes the 10629-35 area marked by a rising trend line and the 61.8% level. Alternatively, reversal above the 100% Fib at 10703 opens the door for a challenge of the 123.6% expansion at 10749.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are stalling below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 2006.80. A turn lower from here sees near-term support is in the 1985.30-91.40 area, marked by the July 24 high and the 50% level, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% Fib at 1963.70. Alternatively, a turn above 2006.80 targets channel floor support-turned-resistance at 2021.40, followed by the top of the index’s long-term uptrend and the 76.4% expansion in the 2032.00-33.40 area.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices appear vulnerable to continued weakness after breaking below a rising trend line set from December 2013. A near-term bounce above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1268.56 sees the next layer of resistance at 1279.19, the intersection of the aforementioned trend line and the 23.6% level. Pushing further above that eyes the 14.6% Fib at 1285.75. Alternatively, a move below 1259.97 – marked by the 50% expansion and a falling channel floor – targets the 61.8% threshold at 1251.38.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, hinting a rebound may be ahead. A break above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 102.42 exposes the 23.6% level at 103.82. Alternatively, a move below the 99.91-100.15 area marked by the September 2 low and the 23.6% Fib expansion targets the 38.2% threshold at 97.77.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Crude oil comment: Recent ’geopolitical relief’ seems premature
- Crude oil comment: It takes guts to hold short positions
- Crude oil comment: Market battling between spike-risk versus 2025 surplus
- Brent stabilizes, yet upside potential persists
- Strategic delay in retaliation: a prime time to buy on the dips
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke