Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support
– US Dollar may break down if it does not hold key support levels versus Euro, Sterling, Yen
– We’re watching these key levels for next cues
– See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators
Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.
The US Dollar has come dangerously close to failing at key support versus the Euro, Sterling, and Japanese Yen. Here are the levels we’re watching.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro plunged below significant volume and price-based support near $1.12 only to trade back to the same point soon after, and $1.12 remains the level in focus as it attempts a rebound. We’re watching these critical dates for Greece and the Euro for next clues on direction.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The British Pound has bounced off of key support at $1.5650 mark, and our bias remains somewhat bullish as long as price remains above. Year-to-date highs just above $1.5900 represent the next upside target.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has failed against the Yen at key resistance in the ¥123.50-¥124.50 range, and a failure has likewise taken it below recent lows of ¥122.60. Further volume-based support at ¥121.50, but trading below leaves major congestion near ¥119 as the next level to watch.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar continues to hold just below important volume and price-based resistance at the $0.7800 mark, and a failure to close above leaves risks towards a retest of key support in the $0.7600-0.7650 zone. A break above $0.7800 offers little comparable resistance until major spike-highs near $0.8150.
GBPJPY
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Sterling has traded below volume-based support at ¥193, and there are few comparable levels until major congestion at the ¥190 mark. Trading below would leave focus on key levels near ¥187.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro has broken below key volume-based support versus the Yen near ¥137, and further failure leaves focus on recent lows near ¥135.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has traded to fairly significant support versus the Swiss Franc at the SFr0.9300 mark, and a failure to stay above this level leaves focus on similar volume-based support near 0.9050. Resistance starts near substantial price and volume-based price ceilings starting at approximately SFr0.9450.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar continues to trade below substantial congestion levels versus the Canadian Dollar starting at $1.2450, and staying below said level leaves focus on support at multi-month lows near C$1.2130.
NZDUSD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The New Zealand Dollar has traded below all notable volume-based support levels and has broken to fresh multi-year lows. Risks remain to the downside, and trading below July, 2010 lows of $0.6800 seems likely.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar has tumbled below key congestion in the ¥95-95.50 range, but the breakdown produced a noteworthy bounce at ¥93. Resistance becomes ¥95 while ¥93 remains support.
EURAUD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The EUR/AUD has bounced at substantial volume-based congestion support zone in the A$1.4350-1.4500 range, and a hold above keeps focus on recent spike-highs near A$1.48-1.49. Yet a failure to hold above A$1.4350 opens up risks of a larger decline into the next congestion zone starting near A$1.4150.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro/Sterling trades has held important psychological support at the £0.70, but it has thus far failed to trade to support-turned-resistance starting in the £0.7150-0.7200 range. Focus remains lower absent a break above the key price ceiling.
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.
Contact David via
Twitter at https://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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