Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar Risks to the Downside on a Break of these Key Levels
– US Dollar testing potentially pivotal levels versus the British Pound, Japanese Yen
– Further breakdown here makes a larger USD decline likely
– See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators
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The US Dollar continues to trade at pivotal support versus the British Pound, Japanese Yen, and other major FX counterparts. Where can it go on further breakdown?
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro has traded above key resistance at the $1.10 mark yet failed to gain real traction as it stopped and reversed at $1.1100. Resistance remains at $1.11 and extends through major volume-based congestion in the $1.1250-1.1400 range, while support starts at $1.10 and extends through $1.08.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The British Pound once again trades at key volume-based congestion at $1.5650, and a fourth failure at this level would keep focus on near-term support in the $1.54-$1.55 range Trading above the $1.5650 mark would open a move towards late-June highs near $1.5800.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar trades at almost exactly key volume-based congestion versus the Japanese Yen at the ¥123.50 mark, and a hold above leaves near-term targets at major highs near ¥125.50. Yet a failure here would open up a move towards comparable congestion levels starting at ¥121.50.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar has failed to hold above key volume-based congestion starting at the $0.7400 and risks continue to favor the downside. Support is seen at recent lows near $0.7250, while a break above $0.7400 would instead target the next short-term at $0.7600.
GBPJPY
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The British Pound continues to trade in a choppy range versus the Japanese Yen and currently stands at the top of a volume-based congestion range near ¥193. A failure here opens up a move towards congestion lows at ¥191.50, while resistance stands at monthly highs of ¥194.40.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro trades at significant congestion-based resistance versus the Yen near ¥137, and there is little in the way of comparable resistance until spike-highs of ¥138 and eventually the multi-month high of ¥141. Support stands at volume-based congestion near ¥135.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar continues to hold below significant volume-based resistance against the Swiss Franc at SFr0.9650, and near-term support is seen at a previous price ceiling at 0.95. A close above SFr0.9650 would leave the April high near SFr0.9850 as the next important target.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar continues to trade near substantial highs versus the Canadian Dollar, and a recent build in volume and price-based congestion leaves C$1.2900-1.2950 as near-term support. Yet a break below would leave little in the way of a move towards considerable congestion starting at C$1.2750.
NZDUSD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The New Zealand Dollar has reversed sharply and now trades at important volume-based resistance at $0.6700, and a close above would leave little comparable price ceilings until the psychologically significant $0.7000 mark. A failure hear nonetheless keeps focus on major lows close to the $0.6500 level.
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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