Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar Sellers Challenge Rising Trend Boundaries
THE TAKEAWAY: Continued US Dollar selling has brought prices to challenge the outer boundary of the rising trend that has guided the greenback higher since December 2012.
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Sellers are now testing support in the 10510-576 area, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the March 8 high, and a rising trend line set from mid-December 2012. A break below this initially exposes the 50% level at 10397. Near-term resistance is at 10650, the 23.6% Fib.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing falling channel resistance set from late May, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1627.70. A break above the latter barrier exposes the 23.6% level at 1635.20. Near-term support is at 1621.70, the 50% Fib, with a move beneath that eyeing the 61.8% expansion at 1615.60.
4hr Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a turn lower may be ahead. Overall positioning looks to be taking the shape of a Flag chart formation, which likewise argues for bearish continuation. A break below the setup’s lower boundary (1398.67) initially exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1386.51. Alternatively, a move above the Engulfing high (1421.90) exposes the Flag top at 1437.83.
8hr Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke above near-term trend line resistance set from the May 20 swing high after completing a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern, exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 95.71. A break above that targets the area marked by the 50% level and a falling trend line established from mid-September 2012. Near-term support is at 94.00, the 23.6% level, with a move beneath that eyeing the June 3 low at 91.23.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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