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US Dollar Still Range-Bound as SPX 500 Finds Interim Support

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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Remains Locked in Narrow Range
  • SP 500 Selloff Meets Interim Support Level
  • Crude Oil Prices Sinking Toward Nov’13 Low

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices rose as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A break above range resistance at 10706 targets 10727, the December 19 high, followed by a rising channel top at 10750. Alternatively, a move below range support at 10646 exposes the channel bottom at 10631.

Forex_US_Dollar_Still_Range-Bound_as_SPX_500_Finds_Interim_Support_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Still Range-Bound as SPX 500 Finds Interim Support

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing support at 1828.14, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break downward initially exposes 1815.18, the 38.2% level. Near-term resistance is at 1849.10, the December 30 swing high.

Forex_US_Dollar_Still_Range-Bound_as_SPX_500_Finds_Interim_Support_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Still Range-Bound as SPX 500 Finds Interim Support

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices turned higher as expected after putting in a Harami candlestick pattern. A break above resistance at 1224.39, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, has exposed the 38.2% level at 1250.63. A further push beyond that aims for the 50% Fib at 1271.84. The 1224.39 mark has been recast as near-term support.

Forex_US_Dollar_Still_Range-Bound_as_SPX_500_Finds_Interim_Support_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Still Range-Bound as SPX 500 Finds Interim Support

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices fell as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break below 93.86, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the November 26 low at 91.74. Reversing above resistance at 95.17, the 61.8% Fib, targets the 50% retracement at 96.24.

Forex_US_Dollar_Still_Range-Bound_as_SPX_500_Finds_Interim_Support_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Still Range-Bound as SPX 500 Finds Interim Support

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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