Analys från DailyFX

US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: NFP Miss Fails To Derail Dollar Bulls

Published

9 år ago

2 september, 2016

DailyFX

Talking Points:

US Dollar Technical Strategy: Next Resistance Break Could Silence Bears for September
Unfavorable Resistance A Key Hurdle for US Dollar
Post-NFP Dollar Losses Pared On View Small Dismiss May Note Sway Fed Hawks

Access Our Free Q3 Dollar Outlook As The Fed Appears Cornered Regarding Effective Monetary Policy

US Dollar Bears may be having a bad day. Friday morning’s miss on the August Payroll data failed to derail the recent Dollar rally that began a week ago after Federal Reserve VP Stanley Fischer encouraged markets to interpret Yellen’s speech as Hawkish.

Dollar did take a step back, but it appears the jury still favors the potential for a 2016 rate hike as there is still a ~60% chance of a December rate hike according to Bloomberg’s data of the Fed Funds Futures.

Many were justifiably surprised after the USD was able to take JPY above 104 and push EUR toward session lows in the hour after the data release. Much of the motivation to buy US Dollar came from the internals of the employment report. Most notably, the revision of the July numbers and the consistent rise in average hourly earnings though it did fall short of estimates.

As good as the week has been for US Dollar Bulls the charts seem to show a few hurdles worth conquering before the celebration bottles are uncorked. For more on what may be ahead, let’s go to the charts.

D1 USDOLLAR Index Chart / Sharp Reversal Appears Able To Surmount Resistance

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The US Dollar index is sitting in at the first key resistance level mentioned in recent posts at 12,000. One bearish development worth pointing out is that the 8/30-9/1 price action looks like a clean evening star pattern. The internal doji high is 12,027, which can also be seen as internal resistance. A break above 12,027 would turn attention to the last level of key resistance at 12,114.

The rather busy chart above also shows that US dollar is pushing up against downward sloping resistance. If we’re able to break above this channel, we could be well on our way to a Dollar Breakout reminiscent of H2 2014 that wreaked havoc on Emerging Markets and shocked commodity markets due to the stronger US Dollar.

You’ll notice a bullish Andrew’s Pitchfork (Blue) that has been added to the chart. If the price is above the top line of the falling Andrew’s Pitchfork (Red), we will default to using the Bullish Pitchfork as a frame to anticipate Bullish price action.

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Strong/Weak View of G8 FX for Friday, September 2, 2016: Dollar Mellowed

In less than one week, the US Dollar has gained appreciably from the weakest currency slot in G8 that it held ahead of Jackson Hole. A few currencies like New Zealand Dollar and British Pound have stolen the US Dollar’s lighting of late, but Dollar strength still seems to be on the rise.

Shorter-Term US Dollar Technical Levels for Friday, September 2, 2016, 2016

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

T.Y.

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form