Analys från DailyFX
US Dollar Trades at Make or Break Levels versus the Euro, Yen
– US Dollar targets highs versus Euro but looks shaky versus the Japanese Yen
– Commodity Bloc currencies show signs of life, but declines may not be over yet
– See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators
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The US Dollar is at a potentially pivotal zone of support versus the Japanese Yen but eyes key resistance against the Euro. Here are the levels we’re watching.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro continues to hold below significant volume-based resistance starting at $1.12, and continued failure leaves our focus to the downside. Near-term support is the psychologically significant $1.10 mark, while a break below targets congestion and volume-based support near $1.09.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The British Pound has bounced sharply off of recent lows and congestion support near $1.54, and further resistance remains at a major volume-based congestion level near $1.5650. Support remains near $1.54.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar has recently failed near notable congestion and volume-based resistance versus the Yen starting at ¥123.50, and continued failure at these levels leaves support near comparable volume levels near ¥121.50.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Australian Dollar continues to hold just above important multi-year lows near the $0.7400 mark, and indeed it seems as though it is establishing minor volume-based support in this soon. That said overall momentum clearly favors the downside, and we would need to see a move above important congestion starting near $0.7550 and extending through $0.7800 to favor a larger trend reversal.
GBPJPY
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Sterling has traded above notable volume-based resistance versus the Japanese Yen near ¥190.50, and attention now turns to recent congestion and price gap at ¥193.50. Support remains at ¥191.50 and eventually ¥188.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The Euro has failed to move convincingly above key volume-based resistance at ¥137, and a continued hold below leaves the psychologically significant ¥135 mark as near-term support. Trading above ¥137 would leave the psychologically significant ¥140 mark as the next logical target.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar continues to hold below important volume-based resistance of SFr0.9500 versus the Swiss Franc, and failure leaves near-term support at volume-based congestion near 0.9300. A topside break exposes a volume peak starting at SFr 0.9600.
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The US Dollar trades just barely below post-financial crisis highs of C$1.2800 versus the Canadian Dollar, and failure to trade above leaves focus on major volume-based support starting near the $1.2600 mark. A topside break exposes the psychologically significant C$1.3000 mark
NZDUSD
Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)
Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.
Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez
The New Zealand Dollar traded below all notable volume-based support levels has also broken July, 2010 lows near $0.6800, but the pair has most recently stopped and reversed just above the $0.6600 mark. Former support now becomes resistance at $0.6800, and to the downside we see the May, 2010 trough of $0.6550 as the next key price floor.
— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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