Analys från DailyFX
US Oil Technical Analysis: Waiting For Break Above $46
Talking Points:
- USOil Technical Strategy: Waiting For Break Above $46
- Oscillators like RSI have kicked higher similar to the prior 50% run-up in April.
- Breakout of Corrective Triangle could define positioning for future positions.
The technical outlook for crude oil comes into specific focus this week due to the turn higher in oscillators followed by a sideways congestion pattern. A break above $46 a barrel would allow a likely run into prior resistance of $49.49 per barrel before looking to the 100% Fib extension of the move up from the $37 low toward $55 a barrel followed by the 1.618% extension near the May high of $62 a barrel.
Given the strength of the trends in summer of 2014, focus will be on prior structural support around $41.75 per barrel. A break below there would favor move back near annual lows and a continuation of the overall trend. The technical picture for the US dollar index, which shows an inverse correlation to crude oil, lacks clarity though the market has moved away from the 12,100 zone multiple-times since March. Another breakdown from 12,100 would favor a potential break higher in Oil.
Currently, the sideways price action to open the month of September turns focus to the swift move higher move from $37 a barrel on August 24 to $49 a barrel on August 31before the consolidation. A correction implies the prior move will resume which was a 30% move higher over seven days. A break above near-term structure resistance at $46 a barrel could open up another multi-percentage move as those who have stayed with the downtrend may further unload their short positions after 21+ days could see another unwindhigher similar to the April move.
Correlated Markets: should a significant break out or breakdown happen in oil, it would be worth it to look tothe highly positive correlationof equity markets and emergence market currencies to confirm. You could look to a move higher in the SP 500 to likely align with the move higher in oil. Additionally, a potential move higher in oil should also align with a move lower in USDEMFX like USDZAR, which is moved higher as oil traded lower.
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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