Analys från DailyFX
USDCAD Just Getting Started; Shorter Term Setups in GBP Crosses
- USDCAD in 2014 is USDJPY in 2013?
- British Pound may come under ‘surprising’ pressure
- Key levels for EURUSD and USDJPY are 1.3745 and 102.50
I spoke at length about many of the rates below in Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar (video is titled Jamie’s Webinar 01/10/2014).
Subscribe to Jamie Saettele’s distribution list in order to receive FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.
Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
–After a month of trading between roughly 1.0700 and 1.0560, USDCAD has broken out. Measured objectives from the breakout above the 2011 high range from 1.1680 to 1.1910. The Jul 2009 high rests in this zone at 1.1724 and the 2007 high is near the top of the zone at 1.1875.
-From an Elliott perspective, it’s possible that the rally from the 2012 low composes a ‘3rd of a 3rd (or C)’ wave from the 2007 low. Such market swings tend to exhibit extreme rates of change (so please refrain from terms such as ‘overbought’ or ‘divergence’). Food for thought.
-Levels that could trigger reactions are now (2006 low, 2010 high (circled), and trendline that extends off of the 2002 and 2009 highs), 1.1125 and 1.1460.
Trading Strategy: Staying long. I am looking to add to the trade. Support is estimated between 1.0775 and 1.0850 next week. Stop remains 1.0640.
4Hour
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-GBPAUD may be forming a near term head and shoulders top. The top is within the context of a larger bull move however. If confirmed, the objective for the pattern ranges from 1.7761 to 1.7842. The December low is 1.7892. Also be aware of the trendline that extends off of the 2013 lows.
Trading Strategy: I am short with a 1.8610 stop and 1.7900 target.
GBP/JPY
4Hour
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-GBPJPY carved a massive outside day reversal on the first trading of the year along with a weekly key reversal the week that ended 1/3.
-The tape this week was bearish. After holding tendline support on Sunday/Monday, a ‘drift’ higher failed at former support (12/31 low) and price slipped below the trendline on Friday. Friday’s video covers GBPJPY in more detail.
Trading Strategy: I am short with a 173.20 stop and 166 target.
4Hour
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-Last week’s (week that ended 1/3) outside reversal broke a string of 10 consecutive down weeks, something that had not happened since 1982.
-The bounce from the 12/18 low is shallow and corrective. Still, the specter of 5 waves down from the Oct high at least warns of a stronger rally attempt. .9167 (former 4th wave price extreme) to .9267 (former range low) is likely resistance.
Trading Strategy: Flat (trading long intraday) but looking higher towards .9167-.9267 for the next top.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-USDNOK has been coiling within a longer term bull trend since Nov 2013. Watch for support near a trendline confluence and/or 6.10. This market is also looked at in the 2014 outlook.
Trading Strategy: Flat but a possible long setup into 6.10-6.1150, against 6.05.
4Hour
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-On 12/27, EURUSD traded into the line that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs and reversed. On 1/2, price broke below the line that extends off of the 11/7 and 11/21 lows.
-The decline is impulsive and price has rebounded from support (1.3547 is the 11/6 high) in what may be part of a corrective rally. 1.3745 is of particular interest as resistance.
Trading Strategy: Flat but monitoring for resistance at 1.3745.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-USDJPY has responded to the previously uncovered close from Oct 2008 at 105.30 (high was 105.43). A cluster of bearish outside days (1/2, 1/6, and 1/10) suggest big selling and there is little reason to suspect that it’s complete.
-At this point, one needs to treat weakness as part of a larger bull move. 102.50 is of interest as support. This level was the ‘lower high’ in May 2013, 12/17/13 low and more generally the middle of congestion that took place in the first half of Dec. I’m tracking a possible topping pattern in the SP 500 as well.
Trading Bias: Flat but monitor for support if the market sees 102.50. Long seems like a crowded arena so respect the potential for the rate to overshoot into 101.50/60 (Dec 2013 low, Jul 2013 high, Apr 2009 high, 2005 low). Things could get worse if the SP setup completes.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients