Analys från DailyFX

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

Published

7 år ago

27 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

BoC Governor Stephen Poloz speech at 15:45 GMT, USDCAD one-day IV at 14.81%
RBNZ rate decision at 20:00, NZDUSD one-day IV rises to 17.54%
Projected range highs/lows for both impacted pairs

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In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.

USDCAD one-day implied volatility rises to 14.81% ahead of Poloz speech

At 15:45 GMT time, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz will be giving a speech, which has very short-term implied volatility on the rise. At a one-day IV level of 14.81% the projected 1-stdev range from the current spot price is 12295-12487. Currently USDCAD is pressed up against a slope running down from June, but more importantly it is testing the underside of the broken 2012 trend-line. This presents a formidable area of resistance as a key event nears. It seems likely we would need a fairly dovish tone out of Poloz to push through this staunch area of resistance and to exceed the projected one-day high. If we do see a strong lift, the shorter-term trend-line off the 8/15 peak is in near alignment with the projected one-day high. Looking lower, there isn’t any confluence between the projected low and price levels, but if USDCAD is to find rejection at resistance we could see the projected low seen in today’s session.

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USDCAD: Daily

NZDUSD one-day implied volatility is currently at 17.54% ahead of today’s RBNZ rate decision

Later today, at 20:00 the RBNZ will decide on rates, with the central bank expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75%. The focus will likely be on the tone of the RBNZ and its new governor, Grant Spencer. Heading into this meeting, one-day implied volatility is a bit higher than it was going into the August meeting, which indicates an expectation for more volatility on today’s events. In August one-day IV was at 14.25% versus 17.54% today. Although, in recent trade implied volatility has been elevated on the back of some wild price action, so the current level isn’t particularly high relative to recent history.

The projected range-low is 7137, which is of interest given the proximity to key price support going back to February and more recently on the final day of August. Additionally, the 200-day MA is only a handful of pips above price support. The projected low may very well hold as buyers step in at a fairly substantial level of support. Looking higher, nothing of interest particularly sticks out as resistance near the projected high of 7269.

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NZDUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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