Analys från DailyFX

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: G20 Wildcard & FOMC Could Lift USD/CAD

Published

8 år ago

14 mars, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/CAD Technical Strategy: ST momentum is Bullish, rising in uptrend
CAD Sinks With Crude Prices on Announcement of Increased Saudi Output During Cut
Previous Article: USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Overbought RSI May Bring Opportunity
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The Canadian Dollar is allowing USD/CAD to move higher despite a recent setback in the USD. Much of the focus for CAD weakness has been placed on the upcoming G20 meeting where US Policy is expected to be the main focus and the weakness in Oil. Correlation has picked up between Crude Oil and the Canadian Dollar at the wrong time for CAD Bulls.

Recent reports came out that Saudi had cut back the amount of Crude Oil output they were trimming in part of the accord agreed to last November with OPEC. Given the concern of oversupply relative to demand at the hand of US Shale producers, Oil traders took this as an opportunity to further cut longs with Hedge Funds likely quick to exit the trade as many were long and looked for a move to $60/70 range.

The other issue on the table is how Canada’s major trading partner, the United States will proceed with trade after providing a statement at the G20 Finance Minister in Germany this weekend. Anything statement that hints at protectionism or ‘Buy American, Hire American,’ could carry USD/CAD further still. The focus remains appropriately at the December high (1.3598) and beyond given the structure and momentum of the uptrend.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis –The uptrend looks to be firing on all cylinders as USD remains supported ahead of FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday. The sharp rise in the 1.30/31-zone aligned with the May-December range 50% retracement opens up the possibility that we’re in-line to see another rise similar to May-December of ~1137.8 pips or a Fibonacci ratio of that amount fromthe late-January low.

If you look at the current 2017 low of 1.29684 and project the May-December range higher, you will notice that half the range or 568 pips brought us to the high last week of 1.3537, where we’ve since pulled back. However, a continuation higher of 61.8% or 100% expansion of the May-December range from the 2017 low of 1.2968 would open up targets beyond the December high of 1.3598 toward 1.36716 and 1.41062 respectively.

The recently overbought RSI(5) has pulled back, which may open up the opportunity if the trend continues higher for traders looking for longentries. Naturally, the success of the trade will depend on trend continuation.

What Did The Analysts Learn After Trading Of All 2016? Click Here To Find Out

D1 USD/CAD Chart: Continuing to Trade Higher In Bullish Channel

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Shorter-Term USD/CAD Technical Levels for Tuesday, March 14, 20173

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: G20 Wildcard amp; FOMC Could Lift USD/CAD

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

T.Y.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form