Analys från DailyFX

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Lower High May Introduce Downtrend

Published

8 år ago

24 januari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/CAD Technical Strategy: failure to surpass 61.8% Fibo favors downside continuation
U.S. Dollar at Support: USD/CAD, GBP/USD with Reversal Potential
Previous Article: USD/CAD Technical Analysis: BoC Bounce Faces Critical Test
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After a volatile week that briefly saw the Canadian Dollar become the weakest currency in the G8, the Loonie appears to be gaining steam again with its commodity-bloc brethren. Much of last week’s weakness was sparked with BoC governor, Stephen Poloz said that hikes remain on the table. Naturally, the stability in the price of Oil, and what looks to be a beneficial positioning for renegotiated trade agreements with the US had reduced me market’s view that such a monetary policy action was probable. It appears that Stephen Poloz was providing exporters a sigh of relief by jawboning the currency lower, which appeared to work for a while.

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The last full week of January has little to offer in the way of fundamental data for Canada, and a majority of US data is split between the traditional GDP durable goods data alongside new information about Trump’s policies coming to the forefront. Therefore, we anticipate most action in USD/CAD to be driven by USD or external factors that are important to the Canadian economy like the price of Oil and the capital flows into commoditybloc currencies.

What Did The Analysts Learn After Trading Of All 2016? Click Here To Find Out

Based on the relative strength of AUD and NZD in the second half of January, we could be seeing CAD strength regaining a foothold in G10FX.

Three key developments on the chart stand out that we’ll cover. First, the development for USD/CAD with Ichimoku Cloud applied to the chart shows a developing breakdown with momentum appearing to resume the Bearish dissent as the lagging line (yellow circle) joins price below the cloud on the Daily chart. Typically, we look at the price and the lagging line on the same side of the cloud as an indication of trend strength developing.

Second, we’ve moved back below the trendline from the May low at 1.2460 and subsequent higher lows throughout 2016. The break below the trendline (black on the chart) could be indicative of a downwardbias taking hold in the market, which would be validated on a break below the January 17 low of 1.3018. The 1.3000 zone has acted as strong support since Q4 2016.

The last component worth keeping an eye on is the Andrew’s Pitchfork (Red lines) that appear to be framing price pivots well. The internal resistance line (black) aligned with the 50/61.8% retracement of the 2017 range and subsequently pushed price lower. If the price continues to fail at falling resistance, I will continue to favor further downside over a reversal. The bearish bias would turn neutral on a break above the 1.33/34 zone, which comprises the top of the Pitchfork, Ichimoku Cloud, 61.8% retracement and the January 20 high.

D1 USD/USD Chart: Trading Well In a Falling Channel. Now Faces 61.8% Fibo

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Key Short-Term Levels as of Wednesday, January 24, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Lower High May Introduce Downtrend

T.Y.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form