Analys från DailyFX

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Time Correction Heading Into BoC

Published

8 år ago

27 februari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Triangulation through February
BoC statement likely to provide positive nudge, but no action anticipated
Previous Article: USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Wedging Between Hard Support And 200-DMA
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USD/CAD has many traders losing patience after a strong downtrend took the price below the rising Trendline (red) drawn of the closing low in May. On Wednesday, we get the Bank of Canada, but we’ll be without a Monetary Policy Report and subsequent press conference. Therefore, it’s fair to say that there will be a nod toward the positive developments in the commodity market with uncertainty on the horizon surrounding new Trade Policies coming from friends of the south and the possible implications of the USD.

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The two charts below, an H4 and Daily Chart, show complementary views that favor a continuation of the downside move that began in November. We’ve seen Canadian Dollar strength that is backed by much of the Commodity run and subsequent USD weakness since the Fed hiked in December. However, February has been a sideways affair.

As many of you have read in my prior reports, consolidation (as we get in a Triangle Pattern), tend to favor continuation of the prior trend. In the case of USD/CAD, that would favor a move lower when we do get the subsequent volatility.

I’m awaiting a price breakdown and close below the support levels of 1.3083/76 to validate the view. However, we do see a lot of support at 1.3000 as the price continues to hold up above 1.3000 or find bids. Regarding resistance, the price has had a difficult time breaking above the twin forms of resistance of the 200-DMA at 1.3148 and the Fibonacci Zone that currently rests at 1.32274/31285.

As to whether I am looking for support or resistance to breaking, I would favor price remaining below this resistance level, while looking for a subsequent move lower. A break above the Daily Ichimoku Cloud near 1.3350 would invalidate the Bearish Momentum Bias.

H4 USD/CAD Triangulation For February Favors Eventual Trend Continuation Lower

What Did The Analysts Learn After Trading Of All 2016? Click Here To Find Out

Should momentum eventually continue its course that it begun in November and keep trading below the cloud, I will favor an eventual move lower to 1.2815/2759, which is comprised of two key pivots in late summer. An eventual move lower is consistent with the typical tenets of Ichimoku Momentum-Based trend following that I adhere to in my trading.

D1 USD/CAD Chart: Trading Between Long-Term 1.3000 Support and 200-DMA at 1.3148

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Shorter-Term USD/CAD Technical Levels for Monday, February 27, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Time Correction Heading Into BoC

T.Y.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form