Analys från DailyFX

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Confluent Fibonacci Support Bounce

Published

9 år ago

5 juli, 2016

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Bullish near-term structure with potential higher-low set off of confluent Fibonacci support.
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In our last article, we looked at the bullish price action structure forming in USD/CHF after the Brexit referendum in the week prior. On the heels of that referendum, global markets saw intense risk aversion that saw strength filter into safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and even the Swiss Franc. This was so profound on the morning after Brexit that the Swiss National Bank intervened in order to quell persistent Franc-strength being seen at the time, particularly against the Euro and British Pound.

But the impact from these actions can be felt in other markets, such as against the US Dollar: With the very real threat of the Swiss National Bank intervening in spot markets in the event of excessive Franc strength, this can be a headwind that makes the prospect of playing short-USD themes against CHF a daunting prospect. And on the USD-strength side of that scenario, this could make for a more attractive way of looking to get long-USD as markets tread carefully around the prospect of being long CHF.

Price action to open this week moved down to the confluent zone of support that we had looked at in our last article, using the zone from .9686-.9699. The level at .9686 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent major move, taking the May 2016 high to the June 2016 low; while .9699 is the 50% retracement of the May 2015 low to the November 2015 high. This confluent zone of Fibonacci support/resistance is also very near the post-Brexit Friday-close in the pair at .9705, and this only increases the attractiveness of this zone as a potential level of interest.

Moving forward, Swissy will need to take out the prior swing-high at .9836 to further its bullish structure. Should this happen, traders can look for support on the 38.2% retracement of the most recent major move at .9789, or a bit deeper at the 50% retracement of the same move at .9738 (both shown in Green on the below chart). Targets can then be cast to another confluent zone of potential resistance at the .9950 area, as this contains the 38.2% retracement of the ‘secondary move’ in the pair, taking the 2010 high to the 2011 low while also being the May 2016 swing-high in the pair.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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