Analys från DailyFX

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity as the Decision Point

Published

8 år ago

19 april, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

USD/CHF Technical Strategy: intermediate-term: mixed + choppy; short-term: bearish.
Swissy has shown support at the confluent level around .9950; but after a recent lower-low and another lower-high, bullish strategies will not be favored until price action climbs back-above parity.
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In our last article, we looked at the potential for a burgeoning up-trend in USD/CHF, given the respectable drive seen in the Greenback towards the end of March. And this move did extend above the 1.0100 level in Swissy, giving rise to the hope for the top-side break of a bearish trend-line that’s held price action in USD/CHF since the beginning of 2017. But as geopolitical pressures began to mount over the situation developing on the Korean peninsula, Dollar strength waned and Swissy drove right-back down to the confluent zone of support around the .9950 level.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This recent false breakout leaves USD/CHF in a rather directionless manner. U.S. Dollar strength appears elusive at the moment, and this has removed a significant amount of motivation away from the top-side potential in the pair.

But from that above chart, you may have noticed something interesting about this most recent iteration of support around the .9950 level; and that’s the same confluent zone that we’ve been watching for the better part of the past half-a-year in the pair. There’s quite a bit going on around this price, as .9951 is the 61.8% retracement of the 2010-2011 major move in Swissy. At .9947 we have the 50% retracement marker of the ‘Trump Bump’, and at .9958 we have the 50% retracement of the much shorter-term recent move off of the March lows into the April highs. And this level isn’t just theoretical, as we saw a considerable amount of resistance show up around this price last year while USD/CHF was range-bound for much of the year ahead of U.S. elections.

Suffice it to say – there are/were plenty of reasons for buyers to step in around that level; and thus far we’ve seen support around this confluent zone hold. But the bigger question is whether this area of support is strong enough to propel a new trend that might, eventually, see a top-side break of that descending trend-line. And until buyers are able to push price action back-above the vaulted parity figure, traders will likely want to remain dubious of such an occurrence.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For traders looking at near-term exposure in USD/CHF, shorts can be favored while price resides below parity with the area around 1.0040 as potentially attractive for stop placement. If we do see price action break back-above parity, bullish themes could become attractive again.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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