Analys från DailyFX
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Swissy Sticking with the Channel
To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.
Talking Points:
- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Bullish near-term price action structure continues to build.
- As the US Dollar continues to trade within a range, CHF may remain as an attractive candidate to voice long-USD themes.
- SSI – If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. And if you want something more short-term in nature, check out our SSI indicator. If you’re looking at opening a trading account, FXCM has a contest at the beginning of next month for certain account holders. Click here for full details.
In our last article, we looked at the continued bullish structure showing in USD/CHF, with a warning about the longer-term, bigger picture wedge in the pair (shown below).
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley
And given the amount of resistance at the projection on the top-side of that wedge, with two different Fibonacci retracement levels within a few pips of that price, traders would likely want to cap top-end profit targets around this region.
But the reasons for bullish continuation in USD/CHF continue to be attractive, with the US Dollar printing fresh near-term highs as we approach the Federal Reserve meeting next week. And while no hike is expected at next week’s meeting, the fact that U.S. equities remain at all-time highs means that, at the very least, we’ll likely hear the bank talk up the prospect of a rate hike in the second half of this year (perhaps even two, which would be very bullish USD). Combine this with the fact that the Swiss National Bank is on-guard against excessive Franc strength, and this could provide for continuation of the top-side move.
On a shorter-term basis, the channel that we discussed last week in USD/CHF remains alive and well. The support level we had mentioned just above .9750 offered yet another inflection before the top-side move had resumed. At this stage, traders can look for support in the .9850 region in the effort of continuation. For traders wanting to tread a bit more conservatively, deeper support could be sought out in the region around .9800, as this is the 76.4% retracement of the prior major move.
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley
— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Tightening fundamentals – bullish inventories from DOE
- Bombs to ”ceasefire” in hours – Brent below $70
- A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do
- Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks
- Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan
-
Analys från DailyFX10 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX12 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX12 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter7 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke