Analys från DailyFX

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Swissy Swings into the Sweet Spot of Support

Published

8 år ago

24 maj, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

– USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Longer-term range-bound, intermediate shorter-term mixed.

– USD/CHF has put in some trending tendencies recently; first with a bullish move up to 1.0095 and then an aggressively bearish move into a very interesting zone of potential support.

– If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. They’re free and updated for Q1, 2017. If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, please check out our IG Client Sentiment.

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In our last article, we looked at the bearish price action that had engulfed USD/CHF after the pair had found resistance at 1.0095. The bearish move was quick and aggressive, offering very little pause for traders to load-up on the bearish side of the pair. But as we had pointed out, a key zone of potential support sat just below price action, running from .9684 up to .9738. The lower-portion of this zone is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 8-year move in USD/CHF, taking the high set in November of 2009 down to the low in August of 2011.

Prices in USD/CHF have been bound between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of this major move since July of last year.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On the below chart, we scroll-down to the Daily time frame and add another Fibonacci retracement around the ‘election move’ in the pair, taking the November low up to the December high. The 76.4% retracement comes-in at .9738, and this makes up the top-side of the support zone that we’ve been following. And within that zone sits a projected trend-line that can be found by connecting the low in May of 2015 to the low in November of last year.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This opens the door to bullish swing setups, and this can be utilized with either a short or intermediate-term horizon, based upon how tightly one wants to keep their stop on the setup. For those looking at a longer-term setup with a bit more ‘wiggle room’ on the entry, stops would likely be favored below .9625 while more aggressive stances would likely want to use the upper portion of the support zone, or perhaps even the trend-line projection itself. Those values are at .9738 and (projected) .9725, respectively.

Short-side approaches or those with bearish biases would likely want to wait for a cleaner entry. Prices fell so consistently from the prior high at 1.0095, there is a dearth of nearby areas to use for stop placement. A break below this zone of support could subsequently open the door to down-side continuation strategies but, until that happens, bears should be cautious after a big move ran into a confluent area of support.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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