Analys från DailyFX
USDJPY Projected One-Week Range-high and Resistance in Alignment
What’s inside:
- USDJPY slow and steady towards major area of resistance
- One-week projected range-high towards upper end of resistance zone
- One-week range-low near lower end of
Looking for a longer-term view on USDJPY? Check out our Q3 Forecast.
In the following table, you’ll find implied volatilities for major USD-pairs for one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically speaking, 68% of the time price should remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)
USDJPY projected one-week high aligns with big resistance, one-week low with minor short-term support
Since the middle of last month, the rally in USDJPY has been slow and steady. The first test of resistance is upon us, with the pair trading near the May high at 11467. A breach of this key level will expose an even more important area of resistance in the vicinity of 11485/11562; an area USDJPY turned lower from on several occasions from January to March. The projected one-standard deviation one-week high is at 11546, right near the upper portion of the resistance zone. On first approach, there may be difficultly in overcoming this area in the short-term. If buyers are able to push it through 11562, USDJPY will quickly face another key test of resistance by way of the trend-line extending down off the June 2015 high. The trend-line was a significant factor in January and could very well be highly influential once again. With that in mind, even though a push through price resistance may develop it may not be sustainable.
Looking to the one-week projected low, it falls at 11300. This lines up around the lower end of a small consolidation period created last week prior to Friday’s rally. Giving the near-term trend the benefit of the doubt it’s a spot to watch for price action to show buying interest.
The big risk event of the week will be the Fed Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, testifying in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday. For details, see the economic calendar.
For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.
USDJPY: Daily
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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