Analys från DailyFX

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Chart And Macro Themes Support USD/JPY

Published

8 år ago

27 december, 2016

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: consolidation favors eventual continuation higher
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga renews Currency War rhetoric
USD/JPY Pattern Appears Incomplete to the Upside (Webinar)

The Japanese Yen has halted its decline against the USD as 2016 comes to a close. However, since September 21, when the Bank of Japan announced the significance Yield Curve Control policy or YCC, USD/JPY has now risen by as much as ~19.35% and could continue higher into 2017 given a recent message from Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in a Nikkei News Interview.

The interview from Shinzo Abe’s ‘right-hand’ turned focus on the FX market as one the most critical crisis managements for his post as Chief Cabinet Secretaryis the FX market. Specifically, his focus was on creating a stable financial and economic environment for Japanese corporations so they could borrow and grow within a stable environment.

However, it’s fair to say that the near 16% JPY weakness fails to provide stability sought by Japan’s government. Much of the move in USD/JPY has been on the November Trump victory, which is playing out in financial markets similar to the December 16, 2012, Japan election that gave Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party in addition to the hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve on December 14.

D1 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Sitting At Strong Trend Support (9-Day Midpoint)

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT, Courtesy of TradingView

The Technical Picture has not changed for USD/JPY as the uptrend looks ready to resume its uptrend at the start of 2017. The zone of support worth watching in this strong uptrend is the December 19 low of 116.56 and the August 24, 2015, low of 116.08. This zone also encompasses a Trendline drawn from higher lows that began with the 111.35 low on November 28.

The resistance worth watching and we anticipate being hit begins with the August 24, 2015, close of 118.275 as well as the confluence of resistance that combines the Trendline off of intraday highs going back to the June 2015 high of 125.85 as well as Fibonacci expansions that extend toward 120.759.

The final upward resistance worth watching over coming weeks should USD strength, or JPY weakness continue isthe 2016 intra-day high that took place on January 29 when the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates. While the initial announcement led to a high of 121.627, the JPY would go on to strengthen by over 20% in the following months.

The price pattern that is better seen on an intraday chart shows a consolidation sideways above previously mentioned support at 116.56 would place preference on further upside if the price does not break below 116.56. Additionally, momentum is remaining bullish per RSI(5) on a daily chart that sits above the 50 level.

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: December 27, 2016

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form