Analys från DailyFX

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Confluence Of Resistance At 115 In Focus

Published

8 år ago

6 mars, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Little market conviction above 115 since mid-January
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USD/JPY longs likely feel both exonerated and confused. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the pricing in of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the March 15 meeting rise from ~33% in mid-February to a 98% implied probability as of Monday. Much of this rise in the implied probability of a March rate hike came from Yellen’s comments on Friday that aligned with a Fed focus on tightening in the FOMC meetings ahead alongside consisted US Economic surprises.

The question that appears to be a rudder on USD crosses going forward is whether upcoming data will complement three or four Fed hikes this year and in subsequent years. Any disappointments in the data that could swing the view toward three or possibly fewer hikes if we get a large string of disappointments could open a window for USD weakness. In this event, watch for a push in USD/JPY toward key chart support at 111.59.

Despite the strong charge higher in equity indices and volatility in a handful of commodities, USD/JPY has remained range-bound since the second-half of January. The key zone of resistance that should hold a majority of trader’s attention is at 115.02/11, which sits above the 55-DMA (114.513).

Conversely, a breakdown in the price would align with a continuation of the initial sell-off witnessed in after the December rate hike. However, it’s difficult to get excited about a plausible test of 108/110 without a break below the 100-DMA and 38.2% retracement of the post–November9 rally at 112.157 and 111.98 respectively.

In short, the current market has posture to stay range-bound and remains difficult to trade from a trend following perspective given the opportunity costs of riding a long-winded sideways consolidation. The long-term trend since summer is higher, but that does not negate the possibility of the current correction since December to continue lower. Additionally, the lack of upside in USD/JPY with the positive fundamental background over last week causes me to give an edge to the short-term downside bias.

Lastly, traders who utilize sentiment via SSI in their analysis should note the recent drop of long orders in USD/JPY. SSI is currently +1.0666 on USD/JPY as 52% of retail traders are currently long. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and now that the majority of traders are less net-long provides asignal thatUSDJPY may trade sideways without a clear trend.

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D1 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Trading Within Firm Consolidation Range of 115.11/111.57

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: March 6, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Confluence Of Resistance At 115 In Focus

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form