Analys från DailyFX

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Pull-Back In Falling Channel Not Enough

Published

8 år ago

11 januari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: recent breakdown below H4 Ichimoku Cloud is worrisome for Bulls
Price below 117.53 should cause caution for traders that desire to be long
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Given the strong move higher in the USD and its index to close out 2016, many traders are anxiously anticipating the next big move higher. Naturally, the relative weakness of JPY has traders also looking to play any rebound higher in DXY via USD/JPY. However, looking at the technical picture and a potentially narrowing yield spread between US and JGBs, we should point out a few key hurdles that USD/JPY needs to overcome before Bulls should get excited again.

The chart below shows two bias or trend filters with Ichimoku Cloud and an Andrew’s Pitchfork Channel. When Price is below the Ichimoku cloud, the price is either correcting an uptrend or in a downtrend. Typically, we look for multiple price reactions off the cloud before we turn opinion from correction to downtrend. Through much of the last week of trading, the price of USD/JPY has traded below the cloud, which currently favors the corrective view, though a correction could still result in significant losses for a trader with a poor long entry even if the long-term uptrend remains Bullish.

We would like to see the price break above the H4 /240minute cloud before confidently saying the trend correction lower is likely over. For traders that want to associate that view with a specific price, the January 8 high of 117.53 would be a good place to start.

The second form of technical analysis added to the chart is an Andrew’s Pitchfork, which is drawn off three key pivots and has done an excellent job of framing price action. What is helpful about the Pitchfork in addition to the cloud is that they offer complementary views and a break above the Pitchfork channel would also validate trend resumption and would accompany a move of price above the cloud and 117.53 resistance.

However, if the price remains below 117.53, and fails to close above the Pitchfork channel as well as the cloud, it could be that it’s too early to presume the move higher in USD/JPY is beginning. Conversely, we could be looking at a move down toward the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the Post-Election Rally highlighted in this article at 114.53.

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H4 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Breaks Below Ichimoku Cloud, Trading Within Falling Channel

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT, Courtesy of TradingView

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: January 11, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form