Analys från DailyFX

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Shifting Landscape Provides JPY Strength

Published

8 år ago

23 januari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: recent JPY strength puts focus on possible new 2017 lows
Previous Post: USD/JPY Technical Analysis: All About The Yields
SSI is currently 1.5233 onUSD/JPY as 60% of traders are currently long: To stay up with the Speculative Sentiment Index, please click here.
If you are looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides.

JPY strength has been a prominent theme as Donald Trump begins his first week as US President. The strength appears to come on the back of USD losses that can also be seen with EUR/USD hitting the highest levels of 2017.

USD/JPY made an impressive run off of 112.57, the current 2017 low that we focused on in the last post. The run off this low totals 300-pips and we showed how you should keep an eye on the key Fibonacci zone. So far, USD/JPY turned sharply off the 50% retracement of the December-January range at 115.617. From here, a breakdown below 112.57 could signal that the recent retracement to 115.617 was a loading up opportunity for an aggressive move that could take us to the key Fibonacci Zone of the post-election rally from 101.19, the November 9 low to the December 15 high of 118.662.

The key Fibonacci zone that I’d like to turn trader’s attention toward is the 38.2-61.8% of the 101.19-118.662 range. The 38.2% level of the prior zone would bring a retracement to 111.98, which would be a short distance if 112.57 breaks on further JPY strength or USD weakness. Should price break into this zone, we could be looking for a move to the 50% retracement at 109.92, and the 61.8% retracement at 107.86.

Many long-term traders are continuing to anticipate that USD/JPY will eventually turn around higher to take out the December high, which could bring out many punters trying to get long between 110-108. You can already see traders getting long exposure on the recent breakdown via our SSI tool.

It is important to understand that this new positioning from traders could lead to more traders loading up on long trades at this zone because a further breakdown, sub-108 could bring about a capitulation and a strong and fast move lower. Such a move would likely begin to put pressure on the November 9 low of 101.19.

However, if the price can break above the recent pivot (50% of the December high to 112.57-current January low), we could also see a similar capitulation from traders holding shortpositions, and an aggressive move higher.

Interested in Joining Our Analysts, Instructors, or Strategists For a Free Webinar? Register Here

H4 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Bounce Fails To Sustain, Possible Move To New 2017 Lows In Focus

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT, Courtesy of TradingView

—

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: January 23, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Shifting Landscape Provides JPY Strength

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form