Analys från DailyFX

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Breakout Many Have Been Awaiting

Published

8 år ago

15 februari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Broken chart and trend resistance turns my focus on support
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USD/JPY has been working on a price breakout over the last handful of trading days since the opening range of February closed, and Tuesday’s price action looks to have confirmed what many USD/JPY Bulls have been wanting. On Yellen’s testimony to US Congress, Yellen noted that it would be “unwise,” for the Fed to delay too long in raising rates. This comment caused front-end Treasury yields, which we explained in the previous USD/JPY post are highly correlated to USD/JPY to move higher.

Fundamental focused traders should notethat with the correlation of USD/JPY to yields that there remains a lot of uncertainty about whether or not yields can persistently push higher as some are predicting. In Yellen’s testimony on Tuesday, she even said that the uncertainty about which fiscal policies will be employed under the new administration make it very difficult for her to change her forecast and therefore, it will be difficult for the bond market to adjust theirs credibly.

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The move higher in USD/JPY also took out many levels of resistance that we’ve been watching to keep a bearish bias. Therefore, I have moved from bearish to neutral on USD/JPY. The support in focus now will be the 61.8% retracement of the initial leg higher from 111.59-114.17 at 112.60. A hold above this level with aggressive trend advancements would favor that a move higher is in the works and could continue or at least is not worth fighting.

Looking at the chart below, you can see a highlighted range above the bearish channel drawn with Andrew’s Pitchfork as well as the price above Ichimoku Cloud. The highlighted range comprises of the 38.2-61.8% retracement of the 2017 range of 118.62-111.594. A break above this zone would turn my bias from Neutral to Bullish.

The base of the Fibonacci zone sits at 114.849, which is anticipated to bring the first real test of this young USD/JPY bull move. The top of the Ichimoku cloud aligns with the top of the 61.8% retracement that would favor a further trend continuation should a breakout occur.

H4 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Breaks Above Counter-Trend Bearish Channel H4 Ichimoku Cloud

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: February 14, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Breakout Many Have Been Awaiting

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form