Analys från DailyFX

Weekly Price & Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Published

11 år ago

16 augusti, 2013

DailyFX

Gold breaks above a major resistance level this week while EUR/USD continues to consolidate below 1.3415. USD/JPY in a narrow range.

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Weekly Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_gold_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price amp; Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

EUR/USD came under some steady pressure to start the week, but our key support level at 1.3185 was never threatened
Our medium-term trend bias remains lower in the Euro, but traction over the 1.3415 2Q13 high on a weekly closing basis will shift higher
Weakness under 1.3185 is desperately needed to reinvigorate the prospects for a more material downside move
The second half of the month looks like the next turn window of importance for the single currency
The 1.3415 2Q13 high is important from a Gann perspective and a weekly close over this level will alter the broader negative picture in place since June

Tactical EUR/USD Strategy: Short against a weekly close above 1.3415.

Weekly Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_gold_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price amp; Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

USD/JPY found support (on a closing basis) early this week at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the late February low near 96.30
While over the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
The 5th square root progression of the year’s high near 98.60 is now key resistance and traction over this zone is needed to trigger a more important push higher
The second half of the month now looks like the next cycle turn window of importance
Only aggressive weakness below the 2Q13 low on a multi-day closing basis would alter the broader postive prospects of the exchange rate

Tactical USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs still favored against .9375.

Weekly Price Time Analysis: Gold

WPT_gold_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price amp; Time: Gold Breaks Major Resistance

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

XAU/USD broke above important Fibonacci resistance near 1350 this week to trade to its highest level in almost 2-months
A weekly close over this level will turn the longer-term outlook to positive
A myriad of Gann and Fibonacci levels between 1372 and 1384 is the next resistance zone of note with strenght above needed to further confirm a trend shift
The next medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the end of the month
Only weakness below the 3rd square root progression of the year’s low near 1280 would turn us negative again on the metal

Tactical Gold Strategy: We like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.

— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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