Commissioned Research

Article by:
Nordea Markets

Video game developer and publisher Starbreeze stands poised to profit from the global gaming market.

Starbreeze has commissioned Nordea Markets to produce a research report with the aim of providing investors with quality research on the company.

Challenge reality – Updated 12 March 2018

Impressions from site visit in Dubai

Last week, Starbreeze and Emaar Entertainment hosted an event to showcase its new flagship VR Park for international press. We attended the event and had the chance to try out the different experiences. Starbreeze is the main partner of the 75,000 sq ft park in the Dubai Mall, which is among the world’s most visited shopping and entertainment destinations. In total, the park provides eight different attractions and a majority of these were playable with the StarVR HMD.

Overall, we were positively surprised that the concept already seems more scalable and commercially viable than we had anticipated. There were more headsets than we had expected and channel checks confirmed high utilisation. Also, when speaking to employees we got the impression that Starbreeze’s attractions were among the highest rated.

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Three quarters to payday – Updated 6 March 2018

The game is on

Once a niche form of entertainment, gaming has evolved into a rapidly growing industry that pulls in more revenue than the film and music industry. The global gaming market generates over USD 100bn in revenue a year, with a burgeoning player base of over two billion in 2017, many of whom are spending more on games than ever before. Video game developer and publisher Starbreeze stands poised to profit from this booming market thanks to the popular titles it has under its belt and its diversified business offering.

The chance to make a killing

We have confidence in Starbreeze’s record and upcoming game releases and see the company cashing in peak sales of SEK 2.6bn over our forecast period to 2021E. It will likely make a killing from the launch of the much-anticipated OVERKILL’s The Walking Dead, slated for autumn 2018, and here we expect it to shift nearly 8 million copies over the course of three years. We base our estimates on the performance of comparable game titles, franchise interest, previous sales record and market trends.

Raising its game

To combat the potential swings in earnings between major game releases, Starbreeze has broadened its operations, adding a publishing arm and investing in emerging technologies. Its games as a service approach and releases of downloadable content bolster its games’ lifetime and generate substantial revenue even years after the initial game launch. This predictable revenue stream helps to de-risk the business model and will likely improve Starbreeze’s earnings stability.

Valuation

Based on our fundamental DCF approach and assuming a WACC of between 7.9-9.1%, we derive an equity value per share between SEK 13.8 and SEK 15.9. This implies a 2020E EV/EBIT between 5.4x-6.4x and 2020E P/E of 9.0x-10.3x.

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Disclaimer

Nordea Markets is the commercial name for Nordea’s international capital markets operation. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. The document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination.
Nordea Bank AB (publ), Company registration number/VAT number 516406-0120/SE663000019501. The board is domiciled in Stockholm, Sweden.

Conflict of interest

Readers of this document should note that Nordea Markets has received remuneration from the company mentioned in this document for the production of the marketing material. The remuneration is predetermined and is not dependent on the content. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets.

Issuer review

This report has been reviewed, for the purpose of verification of fact or sequence of facts, by the issuer of the relevant financial instruments mentioned in the report prior to publication. The review has led to changes of facts in the report. Completion date: 12 March 2018, 09:55 CET