Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide a Answer

| 7 september, 2013 | 1 kommentar

An eventful week in Japanese markets should get some-more engaging in a entrance weeks. USDJPY strength is think as prolonged as a Nikkei 225 is capped by a May-July trendline. USDZAR finished a nearby tenure commanding settlement on Friday and objectives are defined.

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USD/JPY and Nikkei 225

Daily

Japanese_Yen_Breakout_or_Fakeout_ZARJPY_May_Provide_the_Answer__body_usdjpy.png, Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide a Answer

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT regulating Marketscope 2.0

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– USDJPY trade given 5/22 might take a form of a triangle, a common delay pattern. The Nikkei might also be combining a triangle. The USDJPY triangle mangle was NOT reliable by a Nikkei break.

– The rise of a triangle (black lines drawn off of highs/lows and red lines drawn off of closes) occurs 9/26, 91 trade days from a 5/22 top. Today was a 72nd day of consolidation, that is some-more than 75% of a stretch from a tip to a apex. The risk of a fake dermatitis increases after a 75% indicate however (Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends).

– At turns, a Nikkei 225 (NK) and USDJPY have diverged (failed to endorse cost extremes). Both surfaced on 5/22. At a Jun low, a USDJPY low wasn’t reliable by a new NK low. At a Jul high, a NK high wasn’t reliable by a new USDJPY high. At a Aug low, a NK low wasn’t reliable by a new USDJPY low.

-Friday’s USDJPY slip found low during a topside of former trendline resistance. Daily structure is deliberate healthy as prolonged as daily tighten is above 98.80 (prior shutting peak).

Strategy – Recovery off of post NFP low in USDJPY is promising. Looking for support on Monday…watch 98.90. Below 98.20 would annul bullish pitch intensity and change concentration towards 96.70/90.

EUR/JPY

Daily

Japanese_Yen_Breakout_or_Fakeout_ZARJPY_May_Provide_the_Answer__body_eurjpy.png, Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide a Answer

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT regulating Marketscope 2.0

– EURJPY trade given 5/22 might also take a form of a triangle, a common delay pattern. The risk of a fake dermatitis due to a vicinity of a rise relates to EURJPY in a same demeanour as USDJPY.

-Triangle support crosses 129.30 subsequent week. The tighten of a Aug low day (8/12) is 128.87 is also probable support.

Strategy – Monitor for a dermatitis / guard for support from 128.90-129.30. Beware a fake break, generally if lower. 127.50 (close of a vast operation day on 6/13) is probable support subsequent a Aug low of 127.96.

ZAR/JPY

Weekly

Japanese_Yen_Breakout_or_Fakeout_ZARJPY_May_Provide_the_Answer__body_zarjpy.png, Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide a Answer

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT regulating Marketscope 2.0

-ZARJPY has done critical lows during this time of year in new years. The 2011 low occurred in September. The 2012 low occurred in October. In other words, magnitude of lows is roughly 1 year.

-Price is contrast a line that extends off of a May and Jul highs as good as a array of highs from 8/9-8/15.

-Weekly RSI(13) has crossed above 40. A bullish movement form is one in that RSI exceeds 70 during cost highs and binds above 30 during cost lows.

-‘Launch points’ for extended rallies have occurred as double bottoms of sorts in new years. In 2011, lows were done in Sep and November. In 2012, lows were done in Jun and October. This year, lows have been done in Jun and Aug (remains to be seen if a Aug low holds…but off to a good start).

-Getting forward of ourselves here…but cost could be combining a large different conduct and shoulders settlement (upward tilted as well).

Strategy – Need to see how marketplace handles stream insurgency before doing anything though you’ll wish to keep this one on a watch list.

USD/ZAR

Weekly

Japanese_Yen_Breakout_or_Fakeout_ZARJPY_May_Provide_the_Answer__body_usdzar.png, Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide a Answer

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT regulating Marketscope 2.0

– USDZAR traded to a tip turn given Mar 2009 final week before shutting nearby a low for a week.

-Currently contrast high trendline support (in red), a mangle shifts concentration to a former insurgency line incited support (in blue).

– Friday’s relapse finished a conduct and shoulders tip (with a diseased right shoulder). Objectives are 9.83 and 9.80 (see subsequent chart).

-Resistance is 10.07-10.10.

Strategy – Looking for a sale in 10.07-10.10 segment subsequent week. we would also demeanour to nip on a prolonged side into 9.75-9.83.

USD/ZAR

4Hour

Japanese_Yen_Breakout_or_Fakeout_ZARJPY_May_Provide_the_Answer__body_usdzar_1.png, Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide a Answer

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT regulating Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

To hit Jamie e-mail [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele

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  1. Anders skriver:

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