Price & Time: Markets Looking to be Nearing a Tipping Point

| 26 september, 2013 | 0 kommentarer

Talking Points

  • SP 500 at important near-term inflection point
  • USD/JPY closing in on apex of multi-month triangle
  • Gold trying to gain traction over key Gann support

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Focus Chart of the Day: SP 500

PT_tipping_body_Picture_4.png, Price amp; Time: Markets Looking to be Nearing a Tipping Point

The next couple of days are important for the stock market. If the weakness following the failure last week at the 1735 Fibonacci projection level in the SP 500 has indeed just been a correction within the primary uptrend then this is where the index should try to turn higher. A move back through 1710 (especially on a daily close basis) would be confirmation of this positive scenario. Continued weakness, on the other hand, after today and below the 50% retracement of the August to September advance at 1680 would warn that a more important topping process is playing out. While this is by no means our favored scenario, we cannot completely discount it following last week’s failure to achieve a weekly close over 1710.

Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:

Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_tipping_body_Picture_3.png, Price amp; Time: Markets Looking to be Nearing a Tipping Point

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY continues to meander around the 50% retracement of the May to June range in the 98.75 area
  • While above a confluence of Gann and Fibonacci levels at 97.60 our near-term trend bias will remain higher
  • The 4th square root progression of the year’s high at 99.65 is an important near-term pivot with traction above needed to re-invigorate upside prospects
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is spied around the second half of next week
  • Only aggressive weakness below97.60 on a daily close basis will force us to re-assess

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 97.60

Price Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_tipping_body_Picture_2.png, Price amp; Time: Markets Looking to be Nearing a Tipping Point

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF fell to its lowest level in almost six months at the start of the week before finding support just ahead of the 9th square root progression of the 2012 high near .9070
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the exchange rate while below the 7th square root progression of the year’s high at .9145
  • A daily close below .9070 is now needed to signal a resumption of the broader decline towards attractions at .9020 and below
  • The 1st half of next week is a clear medium-term cycle turn window
  • A daily close above .9145 would warn that USD has bottomed ahead of schedule

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the short side while below .9145, but we also like taking some off the table as we head into next week’s turn window.

Price Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_tipping_body_Picture_1.png, Price amp; Time: Markets Looking to be Nearing a Tipping Point

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD found support on Tuesday at the 1×2 Gann angle line of the 2012 high at 1307
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the metal while above 1290
  • The 1350 Gann zone remains an important near-term pivot with strength above needed to confirm an upside resumption
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Weakness below 1290 especially on a daily close basis would turn the technical outlook very negative

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1290.

Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail [email protected]. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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