Analys från DailyFX
Silver Prices: Trading Levels in Play
What’s inside:
- Silver rejected on attempted break above resistance
- Multi-week upward trend still in tact
- 2-hour chart helps provide clarity, trading levels
On Wednesday, when looking at silver prices we discussed the critical area surrounding 17. This is what we had to say from a tactical standpoint:
“Traders looking to short, now is the time for price action to turn bearish – whether it be a sharp turn lower or a key reversal bar on a failed breakout above resistance. This would be the first true indication of a break in the upward momentum since bottoming in late-December.”
On Wednesday, silver traded up above the 17.24 threshold we had penciled in before reversing and closing at the low of the session. It was a sign of rejection, a sign that momentum was turning back lower. But we need to see a break in the upward trend off the December lows before the down-side can gain traction.
Silver: Daily
Created with Tradingview
Pulling in closer to a 2-hour chart, silver is currently holding a lower parallel; and if silver is to make good on the rejection over 17 it will first need to break the near-term trend. Short-term traders looking to buy the dip on support, the lower parallel offers a line-in-the-sand. Resistance lies not far ahead, though, so a bounce back above 17 (especially 17.20/33) could stall-out quickly until overtaken on a daily closing basis. A drop below the lower parallel would be the cue for longs to turn cautious and shorts to look for a continuation of the rejection from resistance.
Support first arrives at yesterday’s low at 16.70, and beyond there we look to a couple of swing lows in the 16.56/50 vicinity and then 16.23. On the daily chart, there is potential for support to arrive at a parallel extending down off the December highs; this line is married to the lower parallel where silver found its low in December, crosses under lows in November and October. The level is in the 16.45/40 vicinity. Between short-term swing lows and the daily parallel, 16.40/56 will be a pivotal zone of support should we see weakness set in.
2-hour
Created with Tradingview
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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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