Analys från DailyFX
Decision Time for AUD/USD
- GBP/USD weekly tweezer bottom
- AUD/USD – big test here
- Gold price levels to know
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EUR/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-The last FXTW noted that “the failed breakout could be bearish but EURUSD is still in a range (could end up as a triangle or flat from the 2015 low) and levels to pay attention to are 1.0872 (year open) and 1.0820 (May and July 2015 lows). The low this week was 1.0825 (on support). There’s no reason to get fancy here…this is a range and upside levels to pay attention to within the range are 1.1180 and 1.1250. A break above 1.1500 would argue for the flat pattern interpretation into the mid-1.20s.
-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.
GBP/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-GBP/USD has retraced a good portion of last week’s ‘BREXIT’ decline. FXTW came into this week looking for support near the 2009 weekly closing low of 1.3793. It was never reached as the open was more or less the low. Cable is finishing the week near the high. A close on last week’s low and the low to high move this week leave us with a ‘tweezer bottom’ candlestick formation (FXTW pointed out tweezer bottoms in AUD/USD at the September and January lows). This is a reversal pattern. The fact that the pattern formed amid the chaos of headlines (sentiment extreme on ‘BREXIT’) and at a confluence of trendlines (see below) indicates increased risk for a decent sized bounce.
GBP/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
AUD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-Regarding AUD/USD, FXTW has maintained since the start of 2016 that “divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning and that resistance may reside in the mid .7400s.” AUD/USD has pressed into the mid.7400s. The 55 week average is up here, which has been OK as a long term trend filter but this is also the slope line that was support in September and November 2014 before the breakdown and resistance in May 2015. A big decision looms for AUD/USD here.
NZD/USD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-Recent comments in this space were that “NZD/USD strength continues to fail just shy of the long term median line, which is in line with horizontal resistance from last July. Bearish wicks on recent weekly candles don’t bode well for the Bird either.” NZD/USD took out all those bearish wicks on this week’s rally. The rate remains below the October and January highs but has traded just above the long term median line. Allowing for near term setbacks, risk looks higher now.
USD/JPY
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
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-There is no change to longer term USD/JPY comments. “USD/JPY has completed a head and shoulders pattern and the objective is mid-105.00s. There is a lot at 105, including the top side of the 2002-2007 line, the January 2014 high, and October 2014 low. Trading levels to be aware of include 110.00s (October 2014 high) and 115.50s-116.20s (breakdown level).”
USD/CAD
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-There is no change to longer term USD/CAD comments. “USD/CAD topped at 1.4689 in January (78.6% of 2002-2007 decline) and is nearing the 61.8% measurement / October 2015 high at 1.3462. That level could provide support but the any bullish operations may want to hold off until the 55 week average / internal trendline near 1.30 given the break below a 9 month trendline.”
USD/CHF
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
See REAL TIME trader positioning
-USD/CHF is consolidating and there is nothing else to add to previous comments regarding the longer term picture at this time. “Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here. Levels for possible support on this decline are .9595 (trendline and January 2012 high) and just below .9400 (trendline and 200 week average).”
Bonus Chart
Gold Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
-The weekly close above the line that extends off of the August 2013 and 2014 highs in gold is a positive. The line was resistance on the initial run-up 3 weeks ago. A parallel extended from the November 2014 low was support in July and November 2015. So, clearly this line represents an ‘angle of influence’. Allowing for near term consolidation into 1220/40 (Friday’s action does fell like a near term top…lots of noise on Twitter today as gold moved higher), broad focus is higher into 1335/45. This zone is defined by the expansion of this recent range, the July 2014 top (July 2014 was a big top for AUD/USD and THE top for NZD/USD), and the 200 week average.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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