Analys från DailyFX
Dollar Rebounds From 3-Month Low, SPX 500 Stalls at Record High
Talking Points
- US Dollar Recoils Higher from Support at Three-Month Low
- SP 500 Rally Stalls After Prices Soared to a New Record High
- Gold Advance Cut Off at Familiar Rising Channel Boundary
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices bounced from support in the 10449-69 area marked by the June 13 low, the 100% Fibonacci expansion and a rising trend line set from September 2012. A close above the 76.4% level at 10535 now exposes the 61.8% Fib at 10588. Alternatively, a turn below 10449 targets the 123.6% expansion at 10363.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused after breaking through the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1719.60 to set a new record high. Positioning hints the path of least resistance continues to favor the upside, with buyers set to challenge the 76.4% level at 1741.60. A breach above that eyes the 100% level at 1777.10. The 1719.60 mark has been recast as near-term support, followed by the August 2 high at 1709.60 and the 50% expansion at 1701.80.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled from the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 1306.88 and surged sharply higher to test support-turned-resistance at the underside of a rising channel set from the late-June swing bottom (now at 1379.89). A break above that initially exposes the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1388.36. Near-term support is in the 1336.79-47.52 area, marked by a horizontal pivot level in play since mid-April and the 38.2% retracement.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices continue to flirt with support at the bottom of a rising channel set from late July. Near-term resistance is at 111.21, marked the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and reinforced by the channel’s top. A break above that targets the 38.2% level at 115.09. Channel support is now at 105.31, with a move beneath that eyeing a rising trend line at 103.32.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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