Analys från DailyFX
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Support Test After Carney Taps the Brakes
Talking Points:
– The British Pound put in an aggressively bullish move around last week’s BoE rate decision, and is seeing a bit of retracement to start this week after a speech from BoE Governor, Mark Carney.
– With the recent bout of GBP strength we’ve seen a rise in retail sellers. IG Client Sentiment sits at -2.46 as of this writing, and given retail traders’ traditional contrarian nature, this is bullish for the pair.
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In our last article, we looked at GBP/USD ahead of a key Bank of England rate decision. While we walked into that meeting with little expectation for any actual moves on rates, the big item of interest was whether the BoE would warn of impending rate hikes in the effort of tempering inflation. While there were a lot of questions around the BoE’s stance, there were few around the rising inflation that’s been seen in the British economy since the bazooka of stimulus launched by the BoE, post-Brexit. With August inflation running up to 2.9%, this became something that the BoE could no longer ignore; and when the bank warned that some monetary stimulus may need to be removed in the coming months, the British Pound ran-higher as traders began to price-in rate hike bets out of the U.K. This catapulted GBP/USD above the vaulted 1.3500 level that we had looked at last week, and this put the currency in a bullish position as we set a fresh one-year high.
GBP/USD Hourly: Aggressive Top-Side Pop After Bank of England
Chart prepared by James Stanley
To open this week, BoE Governor Mark Carney gave a speech at the IMF in Washington D.C. In that speech, we heard more of the familiar concerns around the British economy as Brexit discussions continue. But perhaps the most important line for currency markets was when Mr. Carney said that interest rates will “rise a limited extent at what can be expected to be a gradual pace, settling at levels significantly below those seen pre-crisis.” This acted as an immediate buffer to that topside run in the British Pound, and already we’re seeing the currency correct.
GBP/USD Daily: Price Falls to 50% Retracement of Brexit-Move, Prior Swing-High
Chart prepared by James Stanley
The big question is how much firepower this warning may carry. Are markets to believe that one rate hike will quell the rising inflation being seen in the U.K.? And further – once Mr. Carney and co. do actually hike, what’s next? More monetary accommodation? How can we know that inflation will drop after one or two rate hikes, to the spot where the Bank of England can foreseeably forecast future rate policy? This raises a whole host of questions, none of which have defined answers, because they’re all dependent on something that hasn’t yet happened (that first rate hike in more than 10 years).
More pressing to the near-term performance of GBP/USD will be the continued sell-off in the U.S. Dollar along with British inflation prints. At this stage, price action remains bullish, and prices are testing a key support level at 1.3478. This is the 50% marker of the ‘Brexit move’ in the pair, and just below we have two key areas that could be used for bullish continuation approaches around 1.3350 and 1.3250. Each of these can open the door for stops to be placed under the confluent support zone that runs from 1.3117 (the 38.2% retracement of the same move) and 1.3187.
GBP/USD Four-Hour: Subordinated Support Levels Below Current Support
Chart prepared by James Stanley
— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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