Analys från DailyFX
Gold Price Analysis: The Bullish Pattern Poised for $1375 Retest
Gold prices have been correcting lower for the past couple days and have reached a zone of interest. The Elliott Wave model we are following hints at supporting forming between now and $1310. The next move higher then becomes an ending wave.
It appears as though prices are correcting lower in a small degree wave iv. Typically wave iv in an impulse corrects towards the 38% retracement level of wave iii. If my wave labelling is correct, then gold prices may find support near $1317 and possibly down towards $1310. If price corrects below $1274, then the wave count is incorrect and we will reassess what the other models are indicating.
If gold prices are supported in this $1310-$1320 price zone, then we will look for a break higher that tests $1375.
$1375 is a big level for multiple reasons. There is a wave relationship that appears near there. Wave v is .382 the length of waves i-iii. In addition, the July 2016 high circles around in the same price zone. Therefore, we expect a battle between the bulls and bears to occur near this zone. We will likely see a reaction lower, but we cannot rule out a break higher eventually.
Gold Price Elliott Wave Chart
The IG Client sentiment reading for gold is at +1.79. The number of traders net long gold have decreased since the beginning of July. This could be a subtle clue for bullish traders as the sentiment reading has been dropping from even more extreme levels. Follow live trader positioning in gold.
Bottom line, look for gold prices to pivot higher near these current levels with a target near $1375. Below $1274 and we will need to reassess the Elliott Wave count.
Learn more about the Elliott Wave patterns by receiving our beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guides.
—Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M
Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. These articles are designed to illustrate Elliott Wave applied to the current market environment.
This article references an impulse wave. We have a one hour long webinar recording devoted to the topic of Elliott Wave impulses. Register to view it.
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GBPUSD Elliott Wave pattern clears up.
Copper prices have fallen hard…is this the beginning of a new down trend?
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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