Analys från DailyFX
How to Trade a Possible USD/JPY Trend Extension
- USDJPY ‘3 point triangle’ setup is possible
- AUDUSD may test .9167-.9203 before backing off
- USDCAD and USDNOK breakouts to end the year?
Friday’s DailyFX Plus webinar highlights developments and levels to watch in the Europe/Commodity FX pairs. (video is titled JamieTrading12062013).
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Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Hourly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-The USDJPY decline from 103.37 is corrective and most of the drop has already been retraced.
-One of my favorite ‘trend extension’ setups is the construction of a 3 point triangle (contracting boundaries but with just 3 legs). A drop from before the high that finds support before 101.61 could satisfy requirements.
-A bullish objective of 105.12 is derived by calculating the measured move from the 103.37-101.61 dip. A close from Oct 2008 remains uncovered at 105.30.
Trading Strategy: Looking to re-enter longs (trailed out at 102.20 this week). 101.80-102.20 is estimated support.
4Hour
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-AUDUSD formed an outside day reversal on Friday.
-The drop to a new low appears to have completed 5 waves down from the 12/2 high. A complete retracement of that decline would return price to the ‘former 4th wave’ at .9167. In general, .9167-.9203 is resistance.
-A re-test of the breakdown level from the head and shoulders top at .9267 is possible as well.
Trading Strategy: Larger trend is still down but I am flat at the moment after being trailed out of a month long short position at .9080. Short term support is estimated at .9065. .9200 may be the level to think about turning bearish again.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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–USDNOK broke above a 3 year trendline in June. The topside of that line was tested as support in September (the test was on the ‘no-taper’ spike).
-Recently broken resistance at 6.0730 (10/10 high) served as support throughout Nov.
-This is the 3rd week this year that price is attempting a break above the 2012 high. Measured moves on a break above 6.2643 are 6.7963 and 6.9115. The 2010 high is at 6.7273. 6.10 is estimated support within the range.
Trading Strategy: I am long with a 6.10 stop.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-USDCAD traded above 1.0700 this week for the first time since May 2010 (after the ‘flash crash’).
-The line that extends off of the 10/22 and 11/18 lows may come into play as support. That line is at 1.0530 on Monday and about 1.0560 next Friday. Recently broken highs of 1.0608 and 1.0567 are also of note.
-Measured objectives from recently broken ranges are 1.1035 and 1.1681. These levels are roughly in line with the July 2009 and Aug 2009 highs at 1.1723 and 1.1125. The May 2010 high at 1.0854 is of note.
Trading Strategy: A substantial bull move may be underway. 1.0567-1.0608 is support. I am looking for a low in that zone.
Daily
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
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-Tis a tale of trendlines in USDMXN. On Tuesday, price traded into and reversed from the resistance line that originates from the 2012 high. On Friday, the rate traded into a well-defined support line that originates from the Jul low.
Trading Strategy: Just know that the market is coiled for a large move. Price needs to stabilize before entertaining longs.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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