Analys från DailyFX

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Can 2017 Start Line Hold?

Published

7 år ago

31 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Japan’s equity benchmark has bounced at the point where it started 2017
But it remains in clear downtrend and bulls have much to do
Their first task is to avoid another “lower high” and even that looks like a tall order

How do retail traders view your favourite currency of the moment? Check out the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Nikkei 225 shares a couple of tantalizing traits with its Australian counterpart, the ASX 200.

Both are in clear downtrends from 2017’s highs, which the former made in June and the latter in May. However, falls since have so far been modest in both cases, suggesting investor appetite to hold the indexes at what remain quite elevated levels.

And, just as ASX bulls have just mounted another doughty defence of the year’s lows, the Nikkei has just bounced right at the point where its 2017 gains were coming under threat.

19155.7 is the level to conjure with. That’s where the Nikkei was on January 2017’s first trading day. The index has managed to probe just below that point on an intraday basis in the past week. But it has yet to close below the line and, in the last couple of days, has staged a little fightback.

Still, while bulls have shown some pep they have much yet to do if they’re going to make a base from which to strike out higher. The Nikkei remains very well short of the downtrend line drawn from June 20’s peak. To break back above that would require a 500-point rise from current levels.

That seems a distant prospect, if it’s any sort of prospect at all. But even more realistic goals are under threat. This week’s push higher will have to make it above the last significant peak to convince investors that they are not merely seeing another ‘lower high’ as prelude to a further crack at the year’s lows.

That comes in at 19740.50 and as things stand, topping it sustainably looks like quite an ask.

On the basis that we might, just, be seeing the end of the (Northern hemisphere) summer lull, the uncommitted might just want to wait and see whether the index can indeed find a foothold soon. But the path lower still looks like that of least resistance.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form