Analys från DailyFX

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: RSI a Warning Signal Near Highs

Published

8 år ago

16 maj, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

The Nikkei 225 is close to its highs for the year, and indeed 17-month peaks
So, can it stay here?
Well yes, if it can consolidate, but watch that RSI

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The Nikkei 225 has made its highs for the year in the past week. Indeed, it is now loitering around peaks not seen since the end of 2015.

From such a lofty peak there’s only one question investors care about, no matter what the asset: can it stay here?

Well, the technical signs are rather mixed as you’d expect. But they’re by no means universally gloomy.

For one thing, the current thrust higher from April 17 has quite convincingly broken a notable down-channel in place since March 13. In the 21 trading sessions since that break the index has managed 13 daily gains and only seven (modest) losses on the way to current highs.

That’s hardly a timorous rise and suggests a fair degree of conviction.

Moreover, the last time the index got up to these levels, it only stayed there for about twelve trading sessions before collapsing in exhaustion. This was back in 2015. This time it has already occupied the heights around 199800 for eight trading days. So, a weekly close around current levels and range trading into next week would be a pretty good sign for those worried that history will repeat itself.

The devil in this detail looks to be the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. This momentum indicator has been in what most analysts would consider the safe zone for much of this year. That’s the area between 30 and 70 which suggests that the asset in question is neither heavily overbought nor oversold.

However, the most recent Nikkei gain has seen the RSI edge into what most analysts would consider overbought territory. At around 73 the index is not suggesting catastrophic over-buying, and indeed it has fallen somewhat from the peaks around 76 made on May 10. But it’s still above 70 and, for as long as it is, some buyers may be deterred.

So, back to the big question. Can the Nikkei stay up here and maybe even push on?

Well, yes. But a couple of things probably have to happen to make this more certain. First, a degree of consolidation at or around current levels. Secondly, that RSI has to slip back into the safety zone. This would probably occur as a function of that consolidation, although that is not absolutely certain.

One danger to watch for if the index cannot hang on is one I have flagged before. That downside channel we were talking about earlier took the Nikkei below its 2017 trading range, albeit only briefly as it turned out, when support at 18754 broke on April 6.

If this current foray higher falters, then there is probably more room to the downside than there might have been had the range endured.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form